Event chest this week - how many 5 Sharkeys are you going to give me

I’m working on Blackhawk to finish up getting a few of the missing cards. However odd RNG issue of last 3 purchases today (of 10 keys) all had 5 Sharkeys. I wouldn’t care but it happened earlier in the week too.

There needs to be a better randomness to the cards. Poor Bonnie is not getting any love to finish her to Mythic :wink:

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I think part of the issue is that there are technically only 6 cards from Blackhawk that are in event chests, and only 2 of those are UR, and UR seems to be the highest chance (dunno exactly how high though). So I’d assume you’ll get a bunch of Mimic pulls soon too :stuck_out_tongue:


I’m not certain that all ultra-rare cards show up with equal chance. I recall getting extremely unbalanced distributions in the past, so 5 out of 10 may be perfectly in line with expected values.

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Well no more event chests for me.

I am tired of spending 10 keys to get 5 of the same troop when there are 10+ arcane + runic + stones that could be given at least 1 of each. GAH

I just went to start this week and sure enough 5 Satyr Musician …

And nobody believes there is a bug in the code… sigh

sorry but, what should be the example loot and drop rates for event chests the way that you think should be intended?

to me the current ones are rather fitting the drop rates of appropriate rarities well, its just the pool to loot them from is much more limited

I think the complaint is that, with three ultra-rare troops to choose from, getting five of one of them should be rarer than it seems to be.

The problem is the assumption that every card of a rarity has an equal chance.


Well given that there are 12 kingdom troops, 15 Fey troops, 8 Wildfolk troops (this week’s events) + 2 colors for Runics, + 2 different Arcane traitstones + gems + glory - roughly, 2 or less per type max on a drop of 10 chests.

I know it’s dropping Fey and Wildfolk because I just got Treant and I got Herdmaster which isn’t any of the list above. So yes, I expect to have nothing at 5 cards when doing a 10 chest pull.

Based on the data I recorded when opening chests for Silverglade, there were exactly three non-kingdom ultra-rares and three non-kingdom epics on the drop table during any event, not “all fey” or “all wildfolk”. The chance for a given troop is also heavily weighted toward troops from the kingdom. If I had to estimate, the chance of getting a kingdom troop for Epic or Ultra-Rare is about 80% and the chance at a non-kingdom troop is 20%. During my initial 300 key run at silverglade, I got a combined total of 187 enchantress/unicorn and a combined total of 52 yeti, druid, and treant (and no other ultra-rares). I got a combined total of 7 scarlett/tassarion/rowanne and a combined total of 24 Elspeth/Silvermaiden (and no other epics).

Within the various rarities, you should see the same ratio of drops as if you had used a gem key. As you can see from these numbers, 239 out of my total 300 keys were ultra-rare troops, about 80% of that a troop from the kingdom, and from there roughly the same amount of each troop were dropped… however, there were streaks where a ton of one type dropped back and forth, as with any random event. It is not unreasonable at all to see five of the same troop in a row out of a ten pack. Event keys also have the same drop table as gem keys for runics and arcanes regardless of the week, and also no chance at glory. Again, stones (thankfully) have a low chance to drop in total, leaving you with mostly troops. Were the opposite true, it’d just be harder to get every troop, which is bad.

I believe this is all intended… at least, I hope it is. The relative small size of the drop pool is the only thing that even makes it possible to target certain troops with event keys. We don’t need bigger drop pools on event keys. More transparency as to which non-kingdom troops can drop or a bigger pool of non-kingdom troops but still at a ratio of 1 per 4 in-kingdom troops? I’d get behind that. But decreasing the chance of any of the in-kingdom troops drops? Please no.


I would like to see a revised sampling - the last one was done a while back


I think a bunch of players are saving event keys for the Suncrest release to try and insta-5-star the kingdom. So there will probably be a bunch of available data in a couple weeks (I know I’ll be tracking it).

With that said, long runs of bad luck in really small sample sizes (like a couple hundred keys) is totally normal and expected. So far I don’t see any really evidence of a problem…