Are the drop rates for Pet Baskets available in the spoiler files, like @Taransworld can access the chest drop rates?
I want to do a calc of the chances of getting 1 to 10 Pets in an event without spending gems (and with spending gems).
I could do it assuming the drop rate is 10% (because that seems about right) but it’d be nice to start with the official figure.
I have not seen it but I haven’t looked.
I can look maybe tomorrow or at least soon if you want.
Has anyone looked into this further? I tried searching and found nothing. I believe there’s 4 different rewards a basket can give (white pet food, colored pet food, jewels, and pets) and there are 9 baskets each rescue. Assuming each possibility is equally likely, I believe that’s about a 7.5% chance of getting only the guaranteed pet at the end. I know at least the last 2 runs, I’ve gotten just the single pet which implies the probability was lower and I was just curious as to how low.
Nothing definitive that I am aware of, but around 10% chance for a pet per basket gives an average of 1.9 pets per full run, which seems about right.
The chance of a pet per basket is definitely less than the 25% you’ve assumed in your post.
Taran’s had that information datamined quite a while ago.
As pictured, the drop rate on a pet from a basket is indeed 10%, giving an expected value of 1.9 pets for free from each pet rescue over the long run.
Good to know. Not sure I understand the picture though. So if 10% is correct, the chance of going 2 runs without getting a pet from a basket is about 15%. Bad luck, but nothing out of the ordinary. Thanks.
Have we had any confirmation (from devs or suggestive spoiler data) that weight 10 means “10% chance in a basket”? I don’t think I’ve seen any.
If you complete the 8 battles, you always get at least 1 pet (from the eight battle).
Devs won’t likely ever officially comment on that. It’s not their operating policy to do so, as that number could technically change at any given moment and outdate any statement they could make on the matter.
That said, the data hasn’t changed since the pet launch, where anecdotally it was derived to be 10% and agreed upon by the community in accordance with the “drop weight chance”. The picture in my post is actual datamined data from the pet files posted by Taran.
I always thought the weight is used to determine which pet is triggered by the pet gnome, because pets that haven’t been released yet have a weight of 0.
That’s a good thought, but…
And so on…
Although you are correct that unreleased pets have a Weight of zero, ALL currently released pets have a Weight of 10. That adds up very quickly to well past 100%. It could simply be a matter all of the pets being on the drop table (as they are in the game files), with code that says:
Roll a pet for a rescue
Check that pet’s “Drop Chance Weight”.
If that pet’s “Drop Chance Weight” = 0, then reroll pet and check again, else spawn that pet’s rescue.
All the devs would need to do on a pet’s launch is simply change that pet’s Drop Chance Weight to a non-zero number to make the pet appear in pet rescues.
Yeah, that’s likely what’s happening here. The devs can simply “toggle” a pet to be spawnable in a rescue by changing its Drop Chance Weight to a non-zero value, and vice versa.
Weight doesn’t mean percentage, it’s the individual number of pick slots in the total number of pick slots. To give an example, if there are three pets, one with weight 10, one with weight 100 and one with weight 500, the first one has chance of 10 / (10 + 100 + 500) = 1.6%, the second one a chance of 100 / (10 + 100 + 500) = 16.4%, the third one a chance of 500 / (10 + 100 + 500) = 82% to get picked. The unreleased pets have zero pick slots, so they won’t get picked.
That makes sense, in concept.
Essentially then, by the pets all having equal weights, it’s nothing more than a normal random draw (although changing the weights can result in a weighted draw if the devs chose to do so).
My bad for the misinterpretation of how the system works. Thanks for the correction.
some of the released pets also have a weight of 0. why is that?
Hold on, it’s not supposed to be a correction, it’s just as much guessing as any other explanation what the weight could mean. The approach above is somewhat common for random draws where you want to be able to make some picks more/less likely without having to touch everything (e.g. you could cut the rates for “older” pets in half without having to modify data of “newer” pets). I really have now insight how it actually gets handled, your guess is as good as mine.
Faction pets don’t appear on the pet rescue draw table. They are only obtainable via faction renown, as designed (and can get to Mythic that way).
Dawn bird though is a released, normal pet… so I don’t know? It should have a normal weight chance.
Both are normal pets btw
Those who werent in the first wave of pets such as flutter, marlet, yeti also have 0 weight. So i guess their stats were not correctly updated
/facepalm
You’re right. Can’t even read my own screen tonight. No clue on either of them then.
I got a Dawn Bird this week, so clearly the weights in the spoiler data aren’t working like we theorise.
Or there is another location where weights are stored in the game data. This is the case with a few other things in the game (release dates are one such item). @Fourdottwoone is correct about how weighted probabilities work.
