Dodgy Glade Warden


#1

I just played a Glade Warden with full traits. He is supposed to dodge 30% of skull matches yet he evaded 7 in a row to my zero with Centaur same traits. Both first cards. Hmmm…


#2

It’s probably just the luck of the draw my friend.


#3

I’m convinced that 30% is spread over all fights, not just one, because it happens to my centaur, too.


#4

What was the rest of the team? I wonder if dodge traits stack. :smiling_imp:


#5

I’m am using Centaur with full traits in a team and get startled every time he dodges an attack from the enemy. Which happens about two in three strikes. Supercool! :slightly_smiling:


#6

Blame the good ol’ recall bias…


#7

Not recall bias - I actually counted.


#8

But did you actually count all the times you’ve played a dodgy opponent and what proportion of attacks they dodged? You recall this correctly because you were paying attention this time… the counting is the bias…

Either that or @Sirrian put in that ‘IF player_ID=“esslee” THEN Dodge_Chance.prob(100%)’ code that we spoke about…


#9

Whatever :neutral_face:


#10

I am testing : Centaur Scot, Galde Warden , Reaver with Herdmaster at the top. (2X divinion bonus) Centaur, Galde both has the same Agile ,True Shot and Reaver has Agile.
So, this could be interesting combo.

However, I am still trying to figure out this combo with bonus such as WIldfolk ,Elf, or Divinion Field…

Any thoughts on this?


#11

Are we aloud to use expression like “dodgy style”? :yum:


#12

Not sure why it’s so difficult to understand odds around here. When you roll a die six times you don’t get every number do you? Flipping a coin two times has just as much chance of being the same side twice as being both sides each.

30% means you could dodge 5 times in a row, or fail to dodge 10 times. Odds don’t change because you roll them multiple times, in theory they do, but because the odds never alter whether you succeed or fail, nothing changes from the first time you rolled.


#13

Or to eleborate on that: 30% chance is like a dice with three faces, two of which are the same. Those have a 60 percent chance (rounding off to make the example easier to understand) of coming up, so twice the chance of the third one, with the ‘dodge’ face. But like @Jainus says, nothing prevents the dice from showing the 30% side five times in a row. Just your luck. :smiley: