Did updates reduce the chance for tributes?

I am noticing a drastic reduction in multiple tributes as well. I have only gotten 0’s and 1’s the last dozen tributes with all 22 kingdoms lvl 6 or higher. Its possible its just RNG but thats extreme enough to be suspicious.

Ive got al mine at level 10 and over the last week have not seen a decrease. Been playing every couple of hours as well. So lots of times.

(An update from a previous post done just after 1.09 went live)

If you get all 22 Kingdoms levelled to 10 (only 10% tribute)…

Chance of 0 Tribute: 10 %
Chance of 1 Tribute: 24 %
Chance of 2 Tributes: 28 % (+ 1 gems)
Chance of 3 Tributes: 21 % (+ 2 gems)
Chance of 4 Tributes: 11 % (+ 3 gems)
Chance of 5 Tributes: 4 % (+ 4 gems)
Chance of 6 Tributes: 1.4 % (+ 5 gems)
Chance of 7 Tributes: 0.4 % (+ 6 gems)

So, you should expect 2 Tributes or less 62% of the time.

If you get all 22 Kingdoms to Power Level 3 (double tribute chance)…

Chance of 0 Tribute: 0.7 %
Chance of 1 Tribute: 4 %
Chance of 2 Tributes: 11 % (+ 1 gems)
Chance of 3 Tributes: 18 % (+ 2 gems)
Chance of 4 Tributes: 21 % (+ 3 gems)
Chance of 5 Tributes: 19 % (+ 4 gems)
Chance of 6 Tributes: 13 % (+ 5 gems)
Chance of 7 Tributes: 8 % (+ 6 gems)
Chance of 8 Tributes: 4 % (+ 7 gems)
Chance of 9 Tributes: 1.4 % (+ 8 gems)
Chance of 10 Tributes: 0.5 % (+ 9 gems)

So even if you have all 22 at PL3, you would still expect to get a ‘3 Tribute’ or less every third collection.

I haven’t noticed a decrease in Tributes since 1.09 went live.

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This “issue” comes up every patch from both new players and veterans alike.
So glad to have some math wizards nearby to offer better perspective on these situations.

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I have claimed in the past that the RNG used in the game is prone to streaky behavior. Over the (very) long term, the RNG approaches the distributions we expect, but over the short term it seems quite different. It hasn’t been worth my time to design an experiment to test the hypothesis yet; I just continue to grumble when my 50 gem chests give me 7 Gorgons, or 5 Lamias.

Besides, I suspect that PC users have access to the game code, and could directly determine the exact RNG used to do more directed tests.

Re @Grundulum:
In this old post, @sirrian describes the RNG for gems dropping as “standard Mersenne twister RNG”. I would expect the same RNG is applied to all random tables within the game, including tributes and chest results.

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This way of working out percentages is the error that gamblers use. For example, if a poker machine has a five percent chance at a win, they believe if they play 20games, they will ultimately get a win, based purely on percentages.
The proper way to work this pathway out (based on above kingdoms at level ten only) would be that 22 kingdoms EACH have a 10% chance at giving a tribute. Like playing 22 gambling games with a win percentage of 10%, meaning it can never be greater than a one in ten chance of getting a tribute, over 22 times.

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Today I have collected 6-7 tributes a row, and just have got tribute from one kingdom each time. Have seriously never experienced anything like this before.

I guess it’s just how the RNG works. I recall getting 8 kingdom tribute before I even had all kingdoms lvl 10 (it was close though) - I actually took time to calculate and the chances were about 0.03%. Recently had something similar (as far as percentages go). It taught me not to complain when I get no tribute 2 times in a row…

Genuinely random events are prone to streaky behavior. If the RNG used in the game were not prone to streaky behavior, we would have to wonder about what anti-streak measures the devs had programmed in.

For example:

“For a homework assignment in a statistics course, half the class was asked to record the actual results of 100 coin tosses while the other half was asked to fake the same results by writing down what they thought might be a reasonable random sequence of heads and tails. With only a quick glance at a student’s homework, the professor was able to determine whether the statistics were real or faked, with 90% accuracy! The giveaway clue was the occurrence of runs of 5, 6 or even 7 consecutive heads or tails. These are likely to occur in actual sequences, contrary to some naive intuitive notions about randomness.”

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This is happening for me again. Since I have:

1 kingdom with 4 gold stars
1 kingdom with 1 blue
24 kingdoms with 2 blue
1 kingdom with 3 blue

it is insanely unlikely that I would get only 1 tribute 5 times since 3.0 was released (I’d say that is more than the number of times I got only 1 tribute in the 2 months prior to 3.0). Unlikely enough for me to think something has been changed, or the RNG got stuck at generating bad tributes for me (although I got 10 once since 3.0, my average dropped from 4-8 tributes to 1-4 tributes).

Anyone else experiencing this?

On the day of the release ive got 2 times no tributes at all. Thats amazing considering i havent been left out without any tributes for about 4 months previous to that (maybe even more) and had it happen twice 2 days ago on the same day. And my home kingdoms are almost exactly like yours so our chances are similar.

The boost you get from your guild should be slightly higher, too

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Testing evidence shows the guild bonus is not being applied at all.

Yeah those guild bonuses arent really showing at all.

Regarding Tribute Chance Rewards, I think there is a bug with Whitehelm. I’ve been experimenting for the last 2 weeks. I get much more Kingdoms paying tribute and tons more Glory using Swords Edge or Dragons Claw vs. using Whitehelm. With Whitehelm, I rarely get good tributes…

Most of my Kingdoms are 7 Stars and almost all Kingdoms are to Level 10.

NowayJoe2Go

Although Nimhain mentioned the red statue bonus has been fixed, since my last message, I’ve been getting 2-5 tributes most of the time, which is a huge drop from my previous average of 5-8.

Ok, I did get 10 once, 8 twice, but I also got 1 tribute twice more, for a total of 7 times 1 Tribute in just over 5 days. That, again, is extremely unlikely to be random.

And Onyxia Deep Breaths more, too? ;p

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My tributes have been fantastic, numerous 8s and 9s, a few 10s, and even a 13.

Random is random.

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I’m sure you know the chances of getting 1 tribute (less than 1% chance) 7 times out of less than 100 tries (much less, but I’m rounding up because even so it’s absurd), right? My point here is to either figure out something that is not working as it should, or question the actual randomness of the RNG.

Well, it’s expected that RNG is never really random, but couldn’t those anomalies be better reduced? There are other examples of anomalies. Like this:

I once pulled 3 Mythics from 50 gem chests, too along with a few legendaries.
Also, it’s not uncommon that I get multiple Arcanes in a row (or every other match) from Exploring, then going through a very long sequence of Explores without getting any Arcanes.
Yesterday, I even got 3 Celestials in about 10-15 Explore matches.

The list could go on and on if we really stopped to keep track of anything (which I won’t do, because ultimately I’m a player who wants to have fun with a game, nothing else hehe)… But I don’t think random is as random as one would think/wish. =/

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