We have this discussion 2 or 3 times a week. The problem is your expectations are wrong, the odds are very, very low, and that means even a teeny bit of bad luck goes a long, long way.
Let’s talk about the VIP chests. You opened 50. That sounds like a big number. It’s not. The numbers tell us the chance of getting a troop out of a VIP chest is only 60%. So, you were only expecting to get about 30 total troops from it. That means you ought to get the “not troop” rewards which are what, traitstones? 20 times. You said you got 17. Neat, you actually got more troops than you should’ve expected.
Of the 30 troops you got, the rate for Epics is 75%, Legendaries is 23% and some change, and mythics are at about 1.6%. So if you got 33 troops, the “perfect” distribution would be:
- 23-26 Epics.
- 6-8 Legendaries.
- 0.4 Mythics.
That’s not “zero to four” mythics. That is “four tenths of a mythic”. The odds of getting a mythic from 50 VIP chests are not even 2% when you take everything into account. Realistically, if you want a 90% chance of a mythic, that is 250 gem keys. You only spent 20% of that. It’s not sensible to expect a mythic at that level of spending. (Realistically, if you MUST get a mythic, you have to spend more than 300 for a guarantee.)
I won’t go through the numbers on gem keys, but 100 is nothing. They’re even worse than VIP chests. 100 gem keys gives you a 9% chance of a mythic. You lost a one in ten shot. That doesn’t mean the game is broken. It takes about 2500 gem keys for a 90% chance. You’ll open that many over time.
My suggestion: Don’t think about your small batches of keys. If you aren’t opening something like 1,800, don’t expect much. Early in the game you should open everything and hope you get lucky. Later in the game you’ll start hoarding them like I’m doing right now, so you can spend a big batch when a mythic comes out. Watch the mythic legendary threads. Every month, someone spends 6k+ gem keys and gets “nothing”.
Luck is real, and has no sympathy. It doesn’t care that you think “fair” means some number of keys has a guaranteed hit. It decides, algorithmically, what you will get with absolutely no consideration for what you have been given.
All of those words said: I do think the drop rates are depressingly low. Apparently it works, people aren’t exactly leaving in droves, but it was really frustrating for a large portion of my GoW career.