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Devs....please revise the chestcontent

I open 30 event chest and what comes out?
18 Boneridders and 8 Ice Goblins… Oh yes and a few traitstones.
Now who dares to say the chest content is random?
That is the biggest bs I ever heard. This is not the first time something similar happened. The other week I used 2250 gems to open 50 VIP chest and there I got 17 times the same. On another occasion I used about 100 Gemkeys and guess what… again a lot of the same…. Oh eys almost forgot it the Guildchest have the same desease, bought 150 chest got 26 and 18 times the same…. :disappointed:

Chest have a random content? Sorry devs I don’t believe that anymore…. :face_with_raised_eyebrow: :disappointed:

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Event keys are not random. They give a much higher distribution of Ultra-rare from that particular kingdom, and only give Ultra-Rare and above. This is why you see a high number if the kingdom UR troop.

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So there are only 2 different troops in Dhrak-Zum?
And what about the other chests?
Sorry pal I don’t buy it anymore…. I made up my mind, the chests content is manipulated. Now it’s on the devs to convince me otherwise. And by convincing I don’t mean writing a whole page of excuses and other rubbish but by deeds…

Event chest has an 80% chance for troop and 84.88% of these troops will be of an ultra-rare rarity. As Bonebinder and Ice Goblin are the only ultra-rares of Dhrak-Zum you will see them a lot. And it’s not the worst case, Sin of Maraj has only 1 ultra-rare - Gluttony.

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You all should read my WHOLE message :face_with_monocle:, it’s not only the event chest I’m talking about.
I’m talking about the VIP, Event, Gem and Guild chests.

Doesn’t matter. You already made up your mind.

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The chests are “biased” towards the lower ends (bad drops with higher chances) and this gets worse the more chests you open each try.

To test it you can open 1000 Gold Chests 200 at a time, register the Gold, Glory and Gems obtained and then you can open 1000 Gold Chests 50 at a time and you’ll see better results opening 50 at a time more often than not…

I suspect the game doesn’t calculates each drop chance for each chest individually, it just takes the number of chests and calculates some basic variance that is mathematically appropriate, but it’ll generally give the players lesser returns the more chest you open each time and in a few occasions skew the results towards the most desirable results.

The highest number of gems i got from 200 Gold Chests is 9 gems, with an average of 2, 3 or 4 gems most of the time.

The highest number of gems i got from 50 Gold Chests is 5 gems, with an average of 0, 1 or 2 gems most of the time.

We have this discussion 2 or 3 times a week. The problem is your expectations are wrong, the odds are very, very low, and that means even a teeny bit of bad luck goes a long, long way.

Let’s talk about the VIP chests. You opened 50. That sounds like a big number. It’s not. The numbers tell us the chance of getting a troop out of a VIP chest is only 60%. So, you were only expecting to get about 30 total troops from it. That means you ought to get the “not troop” rewards which are what, traitstones? 20 times. You said you got 17. Neat, you actually got more troops than you should’ve expected.

Of the 30 troops you got, the rate for Epics is 75%, Legendaries is 23% and some change, and mythics are at about 1.6%. So if you got 33 troops, the “perfect” distribution would be:

  • 23-26 Epics.
  • 6-8 Legendaries.
  • 0.4 Mythics.

That’s not “zero to four” mythics. That is “four tenths of a mythic”. The odds of getting a mythic from 50 VIP chests are not even 2% when you take everything into account. Realistically, if you want a 90% chance of a mythic, that is 250 gem keys. You only spent 20% of that. It’s not sensible to expect a mythic at that level of spending. (Realistically, if you MUST get a mythic, you have to spend more than 300 for a guarantee.)

I won’t go through the numbers on gem keys, but 100 is nothing. They’re even worse than VIP chests. 100 gem keys gives you a 9% chance of a mythic. You lost a one in ten shot. That doesn’t mean the game is broken. It takes about 2500 gem keys for a 90% chance. You’ll open that many over time.

My suggestion: Don’t think about your small batches of keys. If you aren’t opening something like 1,800, don’t expect much. Early in the game you should open everything and hope you get lucky. Later in the game you’ll start hoarding them like I’m doing right now, so you can spend a big batch when a mythic comes out. Watch the mythic legendary threads. Every month, someone spends 6k+ gem keys and gets “nothing”.

Luck is real, and has no sympathy. It doesn’t care that you think “fair” means some number of keys has a guaranteed hit. It decides, algorithmically, what you will get with absolutely no consideration for what you have been given.

All of those words said: I do think the drop rates are depressingly low. Apparently it works, people aren’t exactly leaving in droves, but it was really frustrating for a large portion of my GoW career.

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I clearly stated 17 times the SAME troop… So you find that that is more than I should have expected???
Hmmm, I don’t know which planet you’re from but in my book that is rubbish….

And I said to convince me with deeds and not with a whole list of numbers and % and a whole lot of other you know what.
You can try and explain it away until hell freezes over but 17 times the SAME troop out of 50 or 18 times the SAME troop out of 30 and so on that is rubbish.
To repeat it I spoke of the SAME troop not of the number of troops.

A few prople have offered explanations for what you might be seeing. Rather than trying to understand what they’ve said, you’ve been flat out abrasive to them. Enjoy walking your lonely road.

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It might look abrasive but it is simply the truth.
And the explanation for what I “might” have seen are totally not about what I did see.
They are all explaining things that have nothing to do with the issue namely several the SAME troops in a row.
Nowhere in any of the reply’s I see an explanation for that.
And if somebody should feel abrasived then I’m sorry for that but that is totally not my intention.
I just don’t like it when people are trying to explain things away with wrong arguments.

You were most likely to get one of two troops. You got 17 of one and 8 of the other. While that is not a 50/50 split, probability rarely works that way. What happened to you is not so beyond the pale it is unexpected.

And if you don’t want to hear numbers when you’re effectively playing a slot machine, you are beyond help.

The explanation from everyone in this thread are spot on!

When opening event chests there is a much higher chance to get ultra rare troops, and there are usually only a few in each kingdom. As such, it isn’t unusual to see pulls like this.

The same can be said of all of our chests, as the drops are randomly generated from a percentage chance at each troop type.

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At least we don’t get 17 berserkers during a wild plains event or sand sharks during a forest of thorns event :smirk:

Exactly. When the Sin kingdom was new, I pulled over 20 Gluttony out of 50 Event Keys. A little insane? Sure, but it was the only UR in the Kingdom. And, it was a new troop (at the time) and my first ascended Mythic in the Kingdom, so, I was fine with it.

@WWDiver Now, as a player, whether you agree this is how the game should be or not, is another story. Everyone has their own opinion on it. But, regardless, if you like it or not, that’s just how it is

Right, there’s an important distinction to be made about what’s being argued.

“Did what happened to me make any sense given the rules we understand about the game?” is inarguable. What happened is within the bounds of both sane and insane probability. Most of us have had exactly that kind of pull luck for some period.

“Is this a good way for the chests to be implemented?” is arguable. There are other ways to distribute troops. The rates can be changed. Pity timers can be implemented. Chests could drop diamonds. There are a million good and bad ways we could discuss updating it.

To make this thread productive, it’d be best to describe how you think the chests should be implemented and stick to it. People aren’t going to like it, most likely. People have a tendency to like the game the way it is. So often even good ideas take a lot of fighting to accomplish.

Summary:

  • What happened to you is not “unfair” in the sense that the rules as they were written when you opened keys said this is what might happen.
  • What happened to you could be “unfair” if you feel like a different way for those rules to be written is true.
  • For the 2nd bullet to apply, we have to be talking about “a hypothetical GoW with different rules”, not “the current game”, so frame the thread as such.
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