Basically, we now have an equation that can be verified or refuted based on others’ findings. Most of the situations I tested involve controls (no gen mana, max mana, max damage, etc). But if we really want to test it, we need weird cases, like max mana but 2:1 damage.
From a min-maxer point of view, we already knew how to get most points from one of the first posts: use day’s colors, win fast by overwhelming opponent and don’t lose a troop, earning yourself as close to 5.2 multiplier as possible, or 9800 daily points.
But from the formula point of view, only more data points will fully confirm or deny. Now to do my fights, including keghammer and possibly a loss, then come back with results.
EDIT 1 (4x Keghammer on yellow day):
3170 points, 1170 without defense bonus.
1170/250 - 1 = 3.68
Our color bonus was 48% so 4 × .48 = 1.92
3.68 - 1.92 = 1.76 (matching earlier Keghammer fight)
Damage dealt: 94 from keghammers
Damage received: 5 from skull damage
No mana generated (unless considering empowered, which would be 48)
Enemy mana: 12
Conclusions:
- Damage bonus: max
- Survival bonus: max (.4)
- Color bonus 48% per troop (1.92)
- Turns: 4 (50-4 × .01 = .46)
- Mana bonus: max or 0
A) If mana bonus 0:
Damage bonus = 1.76 - .4 - 46 = .9 (as above)
B) If mana bonus is max:
Mana + Damage = .9
And from full formula we would have:
5.2 - 1 - 2 (color) - .5 (turn) - .4 (survival) = Mana + Damage
5.2 - 3.9 = .9
1.3 != .9
B is not possible so that leaves A as the only possibility. Thus, Mana bonus must max out at .4 and Damage must be .9. Q.E.D. 
EDIT 2 (Widow queen on yellow day):
Team used:
- Mountain Crusher (Titan)
- Widow Queen
- Leprechaun
- Emperinazara
(No yellow troops so no color bonus)
Score: 803
803/275 - 1 = 1.92
Facts:
Turns: 12, so .38
Survival: .3 or .4 (guess we’re testing summons too)
Total enemy life + armor: 383 (384 from bloodthirst)
Total life + armor of sacrificed troop: 277
Total damage received: 39 [9 (3 troops hit by kraken trait), 1 (bloodthirst), 29 (skull)]
My mana:
- 120 on troops
- 228 gems exploded (includes values on troops but not wasted or unused)
- 31 unused by troops
- 12 from MC
- 31 wasted
Enemy mana: 26 (22 if discarding 4-matched brown that wasn’t used)
Just from mana on troops, 120/22 > 4. Even removing mana from MC, and incorrectly using the maximum enemy mana, 108/26 > 4. So mana bonus must be maxed (unless 4:1 ratio is not maximum)
A) At .3 survival:
Damage bonus = 1.92 - .4 - .38 - .3 = .84
Based on .225 damage multiplier, this means .84/.225 = 3.733 ratio of damage dealt vs received.
B) At .4 survival:
Damage bonus = 1.92 - .4 - .38 - .4 = .74
Based on .225 damage multiplier, this means .74/.225 = 3.289 ratio of damage dealt vs received.
I don’t see any way for the Widow Queen’s ally kill damage (277) to be included that would fit anywhere in that formula. Yet, if we disregard it entirely, damage should be maxed at .9 (closer to option A, which means any death subtracts from survival bonus, even if you summon something to take its place.)
On the other hand, maybe damage is maxed at .9 (as per fire bomb experiment in earlier post) but mana is the one that’s missing either .6 or 1.6.
Would be happy to hear anyone’s idea on what might be happening or what I might’ve overlooked.
NOTES: Both heroes has barriers that blocked some damage and Holy St. Astra had trait that blocked 25% of Widow Queen’s spell damage.