Hmmm all good points. Maybe I should stop getting the Monday to Saturday bounties after all

Hmmm all good points. Maybe I should stop getting the Monday to Saturday bounties after all

Nice info! Btw, where did you get these numbers; 10k gems per Mythic with gem chests and 5k with VIP chests?

Estimated drop rates for mythics from VIP chests is 1 in 100 (data directly from the game shows them as about 1 in 100.1 but its a reasonably close approximation) and 1 in 1000 from Gem Chests (which is actually apparently closer to 1 in 1042). 100 VIP chests cost 5k gems if bought individually and 4.5k if bought in packs of 50. 1000 Gem Chests cost 10k gems if bought individually, and 9k gems if bought in packs of 50. This is the **average** cost per mythic. Actually pulling one is, of course, random, but over time you should trend toward these numbers.

Stupid quesion but… what and where are gem bounties? Are you talking about Dungeon or what? I looked through shop and offers and I don’t really find out what are you talking about.

i must have used all my chest luck up when infernus came out then since i got 3 of him from about 50 gem keys total xD

The Dungeon has 2 offers each day - once you defeat the first boss, hit the “Offer” button. There’s one for cash ($4.99) and a second one for 50 Gems. We’re talking about the Gem one here.

tldr;

On diamond day it’s always worth spending the 50 gems on the Dungeon bonus deal.

Other days, debatable unless you need something specific.

From taransworld, we can have some stats. If you take the week of 10/02/2017 for a one-Mythic-exclusive week:

- with 100 VIP chests, you have 63% to obtain the Mythic
- need 300 VIP chests for a 95% to drop it
- almost the same for gem keys, 1000 for 63%, 3000 for 95%

Fun math around Myth drop rates

I know. This is the cumulative probability for consecutive trials. I was stating average drop rate rates. The ~63% is also to obtain *at least* one copy in 100 trials. The **average** still remains 1 in 100(.1) VIP chests. Both are accurate, but when speaking about the data long term, the **average** is more relevant.

But according to http://www.taransworld.com/Chest/

10’000 Glory chests net a 6.76% drop rate for a Mythic.

100’000 Glory chests is 50.34%.

Did you actually mean 100’000 instead of 10’000?

EDIT: 10’000 Gem chests give 38.12% drop rate.

100 VIP is 4.87%. WTF?

@turintuor, can you clarify?

Oh, my bad. It actually calculates chances for a specific Mythic, not for a random Mythic. That’s why it’s so low.

Almost agree. Some people could misunderstand what an average is and believe that having 100 VIP keys is enough for them to drop a new Mythic. 95% of chance seems to me more appropriate in this case, where we want to compare a random drop chance with a 100% drop chance (ie crafting).

It’s one trial every month so 12 trials by year. Not sure if one player will be closed to the average with so few data.