Almost agree. Some people could misunderstand what an average is and believe that having 100 VIP keys is enough for them to drop a new Mythic. 95% of chance seems to me more appropriate in this case, where we want to compare a random drop chance with a 100% drop chance (ie crafting).
It’s one trial every month so 12 trials by year. Not sure if one player will be closed to the average with so few data.