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Are Arcane drop rates really constant in time?

Recently, I’ve been feeling like my first Arcane drop of the day comes almost immediately upon my first Explore attempts, even my very first explore attempts. Meanwhile, trying to grind out that 5th or 6th or 15th one feels like it takes much much longer. Is this just me encountering random statistical anomalies, or is it actually designed to allow players to get a couple Arcanes easily, but lots of Arcanes (Arcane farming) is more difficult?

I have spent tens of thousands of battles doing explore to farm arcanes and tracked my results for much of that. I’m convinced that the rates are static and any weirdness that we see is pure luck. There have been times I thought I was going crazy or thought the game was out to get me, but over time, everything evens out.


It sometimes feels like it.

That’s what I would have assumed. Thank you for putting my sanity back in place.

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I would find it was most helpful to watch Netflix or something while farming. If you’re only half paying attention, the ups and downs don’t really bother you and you can just be pleasantly surprised by how many you’ve found after an hour or two.

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I feel like I have “lucky streaks” but it really comes down to that I mindlessly watch Netflix while traitstone farming so I don’t really notice when I’m not getting arcanes but I get excited if they show up in quick succession.

Over my whole GoW lifetime it feels like it works out to about 6 per hour. That means some hours I get 0, some hours I get 12, and most of the time I’m seeing between 5 and 7.

I know what you mean. I, myself, am almost always listening to something when play Gems. Whether it be music, a podcast, stand up comedy, whatever. Only time I don’t is when I need to focus a bit more, like during GW battles and such. Other than that, I almost always have my ear buds in while I play this game. I feel it makes the grind feel less drag-y and tiresome/boring/however you want to say it.

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I don’t know if it’s just observer bias or what but when I don’t get an arcane after what seems like too long a time, I switch kingdoms and more often than not BAM! an arcane appears first battle. Same thing with gnome hunting.