70 vault runs after the patch… No vault keys.
30 gnomes found this first vault weekend after the patch…No vault keys.
I’m well aware of at least some PC players finding keys. Maybe I just had great luck prior to 5.0
Seems odd to all of a sudden have substantial bad luck.
I’ve never found 30 gnomes during a vault weekend without getting at least 1 vault key.
That was the point of the post. That even if a mathematically valid comparison was made to equate the cost of the Elite Pass in Gems, that someone would advance and advocate an comparison point that would render any good-natured argument meaningless.
What would you value a guaranteed, specific mythic at in Gems?
– The closest comparison I can think of pulling for the monthly new mythic.
– Gem Keys have a 0.1% (1 in 1000) draw rate to pull the mythic, per in-game rates.
– Gem Keys have a base value of 10 Gems per pull.
So, what would be a high enough cumulative success rate to consider a “guarantee” on the mythic? 90%? 95%? 99%?
Rounding, for easier reading:
It takes ~2300 pulls for a 90% success rate, times 10 gems per pull = 23,000 Gems.
It takes ~3000 pulls for a 95% success rate, times 10 gems per pull = 30,000 Gems.
It takes ~4600 pulls for a 99% success rate, times 10 gems per pull = 46,000 Gems.
Even if one takes a absurdly generous 50% discount for time value of money for a ten week campaign, that’s still far, far more than the 3,000 Gems you suggested (you did state that you were open to higher amounts). The cost of any of those gem costs converted to real currency of any type, is incredibly staggering.
Sometimes, I think people lose sight of the gem value of vast amounts of free resources the game offers. Yes, gem value is a fictional analytic. But, the devs have stated multiple times over the years that designers use gem value comparisons and analyses when pricing resources and offers in the game.
Then, there’s the issue of the difficulty of obtaining 3,000 gems via free methods. Most of the posters on these forums are veteran posters with advanced accounts and leveled kingdoms. How difficult would it be, if one spends conservatively, to accumulate 3,000 gems to purchase this pass? The actual answer varies by player, but I believe that it would be safe to assert that most veteran players would be able to save that amount by the end of the ten week campaign, which makes the net cost of this pass to these players… mostly free. There’s the opportunity cost, of course, of what other purchases could have been made with those gems. But in the end, that makes the ultimate choice for the Elite Pass between $10 USD and free.
Now, I’m a crazy tin-foil hatted person three-quarters of the time on these forums, but I’m pretty darn sure the majority would choose the free option. And since the devs want to use Elite Passes to serve as a monetization tool, a 3,000 gem option is a non-starter.
The cost would have to be much higher to cause the veteran free player “pain” in this decision. In my personal opinion, the extreme minimum (read: highly unlikely) the bundle would even remotely sanely be offered for would be 10,000 Gems.
But, using the logic in my previous post, the most expensive gem bundle (at base price, as all math in this post uses base price points), is the Motherlode at 1,500 Gems per $100 USD. To buy that many gems would require seven purchases, totaling $700 USD.
Now, the comparison is between $10 USD and $700 USD, and would be horrific optics for the devs and the game. The devs simply are not going to go there, but that comparison would absolutely be made within three hours max of the offer going live on these forums. I have very little doubt about that.
I’m very skeptical that there is any real Gems price point that can avoid this type of comparison and not look completely illogical to a rational player. The devs are not going to fire sale the mythic + upgrade so that veterans can save enough Gems in ten weeks to buy it, guaranteed, for with only passive gem tributes when the goal is to generate sales revenues.
I wish there was a soulforge recipe like:
5,000,000 souls
10,000 treasure maps
200,000 glory
1000 runics of the color
10,0000,000 gold
to get a book of each color.
Then we’d never have a complaint about stockpiles of those resources ever again and it would be suitable out of reach for getting very many.
Complaining about something not having happened yet is an empirically proven scientific method.
I doubt very seriously that most folks would spend 2500 let alone 10k gems for the pass. Maybe a PC player with 100k gems might do it but highly doubtful for the rest of us IMHO of course.
Never got a vault (or epic vault) key from a vault battle. Ever. And I’m 0 for 80 keys to get the daemon gnome.
Not the first time I’ve posted bad luck, and it has’nt changed.
@DigitalWar669 nearly every industry has seen major delays due to COVID, and we are no different. Yes, coding can happen at home, and a lot of iother industries can now also be done from home.
But things are still significantly delayed worldwide across a huge amount of industries. Stress, anxiety, poor living conditions and the big one, children not at school, will always change how fast and efficiently things can be done.
Also, mental health.
Because you aren’t a true believer.
The RNG Gods only favor those who worship them.
Provide adequate donations in a micro transaction form.
And get immediately paranoid anytime the RNG doesn’t favor them.
I have yet to get an epic vault key.
Could it be bugged?
Could it be discriminatory against those less than vip 13?
Could 10% of a drop rate not already stated be an algebraic nightmare to try and solve for X?
Meaning… if gnomes have a 1:30 drop rate… But of that drop rate we don’t know how many are supposed to be vault keys… We only know it’s raised during vault weekends… Then how is it helpful to know that epic vault keys are 10% of X.
I believe I just haven’t sacrificed enough digital goats…I should just adjust my rates to 90% of X.
@Saltypatra @Kafka Can we please get some clarification on this? Why in the current vault event almost nobody managed to find one? It’s obviously NOT 10% more like 1% if even that. A response would be greatly appreciated even if it’s just “We are looking into it”
I think someone crunched the numbers and figured out it’s cheaper to hire someone to give excuses why there isn’t any new content than to actually create any.
Anyone else find it hilarious they claim the reason they don’t make any content is because people will complain about it? It would be like if Disney announced they aren’t making any new movies because some people will write bad reviews.
Implying that waiting for them to release troops so we can upgrade kingdoms is some sort of endgame is a knee slapper as well.
There is a good reason there is no credits screen anywhere to be found for this game.
why do you mean by nobody ? i counted more than 4 people posting screenshots of getting at least one… people are getting them… some get one, after getting 13/17 epic keys, and some dont get them after getting 40 vault keys… it’s RNG, you will eventualy get one… just when you’ll forget that you even wanted at least one…
I paid $120 for this game. That’s triple what I would normally pay for a AAA game.
I think we need to acknowledge that there’s categories between F2P and P2W.
I’m disappointed that your schedules seem to be too inflexible to accomodate these facts (at least in some key cases I’m aware of).
There are always options beyond the obvious, including renegotiating up the chain. If you think there’s only Option A and Option B, think hard to find Options C, D, E and F.
For more on this from an actual game producer (Mike Bithell, of “Thomas was Alone” fame), watch part of the following video on how he is able to manage his staff and schedule to totally avoid Crunch. This guy is super smart about this stuff IMO! (The link is directly to the start of the key discussion, and lasts about 10 minutes.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUXvNlRHWMg&t=3480s
My main issue with that is: It doesn’t matter when they increase the level power of kingdoms, be it before or after we have enough troops to unlock such, because it really doesn’t add anything new to the game. They could as well give everyone +10 in all stats today and it wouldn’t change much regarding gameplay.
I hope that at least after this whole campaign they manage to reach the metric$ they are aiming for so we can see better updates and REAL improvements to gameplay.
Mental Health always makes me thing of that Suicidal Tendencies song.
All I wanted was a Pepsi and she wouldn’t give it to me…
Any other children of the 80s remember that song? Yes, these times are enough to drive many of us a little crazy.
And some players spend thousand of dollars on Path of Exile or any other games. Does it make these games P2W?
It does if those dollars make an appreciable stat-gap 
P2W just means money can buy enough of an advantage that a F2P can’t compete.
@Starlite I understand that you are coming from a good place, but you aren’t aware of the reality of our studio, practices, and publisher relationship.
It is easy to look at things from the outside and think they are easy, I am telling you that they are not.
