What you were expecting to happen, and what actually happened:
I was expecting to pull all six cosmic dragons. I’ve pulled only 5, followed by 30 DUPES of those same 5.
How often does this happen? When did it begin happening?
Every time, ever since the cosmic dragons were introduced.
Steps to make it happen again
You can’t, at least not 99.83% of the time. It defies statistical probability.
Egg dragons should cap at 4 like guild guardians do, it’s utterly insane the amount of punishing RNG this game is loaded up with now. Either introduce weighting or some other form of bad luck protection against situations like this. I literally lost a friend from the game to this crap last week, he just couldn’t stomach this nonsense any more and uninstalled, he wasn’t a free player either.
That there’s a small non-zero chance (the 0.17%) says that it isn’t defying statistical probability. It’s most certainly an outlier event and a very rare one, but it’s precisely the sort of thing you should see happen every so often in true RNG or a decent facsimile of such.
It’s approximately a 1-in-600 thing; that’s much more common as compared to certain other probabilistic events that a great many people pursue, such as playing the (big money) Lottery sweepstakes.
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There’s certainly a fair debate to be had as to whether this sort of thing would be better (for the players) if there was some sort of “pity counter” to inhibit such long streaks of “futility”. But it’s not a bug; you’re simply the “lucky” recipient of a lousy streak much like how anybody who received all six dragons in six eggs was a “lucky” recipient of a streak at the opposite extreme.
It’s not what you (or a lot of other people) want to hear. But this is how the process actually works.
Yes, I understand statistics, but by the same logic I could pull 100 million times and still have an infinitesimal chance of not pulling eklipsos.
The fact is, 35 dragons is clearly beyond what was intended by the developers, and as such needs to be addressed, not defended by some “well, actually” bs.
Yes, great game design. They do not care about players at all. Zero knowledge about math and statistics, never heard of a Bell curve.
The earlier you stop playing this game the earlier you can find a good game. There is 0 hope for change.
If there was a different intention from the developers, they could have had it programmed in that way. Some of those potential answers being things already present within the code, such as borrowing the Guild Guardian thing where a particular troop is removed from the pool after you reach a certain quantity of them.
So while there may not be an explicit intent for some players to draw 35 or 350 or 3500 eggs to get all six dragons, there’s clearly not an explicit intent to put an “upper limit” on how many eggs you do have to draw. Or that “upper limit” would already be there.
Someone somewhere got paid to do a study that “proved” a player’s eventual dopamine rush in these types of situations is greater and is therefore justified.
Bell curves have outliers. That’s literally the bell. Super unlucky at the base on one side, super lucky on the base of the other side.
That said, I think in a game like this there should be some sort of “pity” mechanic to mitigate this. It’s a terrible idea to let bell curves be curves here. I agree with everyone who says 4 max of any dragon.
“They system is working as intended. Now spend money and buy more dragonite.” - devs
Though as someone who has refused to spend a dime on the game in years (i’m only VIP 3), I just started saving up dragonite toward getting my 2nd cosmic egg. And I only had 8 dupes of the original 6, so I was actually lucky there.
Of course I have zero luck in getting that horrid horde mimic. 2 1/2 years of grinding E12, and i’ve gotten nothing. Basically get the battle once a month and every single time its just some tokens. Meanwhile I have guildmates who have 10 copies of the stupid troop and haven’t grinded anywhere near what I have.
Already got 4 copies of all dragons, except no Emeraldin, so I can’t get the rings or the weapon or the last dragon. Thanks dev’s, but if you want my money, then let me buy the dragon I want directly. Instead of buying a chance to get fu**ed by NRG again and again making me ask myself am I really still playing this game only to get frustrated and disappointed after already spending like $400 on vip.
Is it really too much to ask for no extra copies over 4 if one is missing? Maybe just for those who have already given you more money then they have ever spent on any game!
Wrathenas, there is now the chance to craft the gem/cosmic dragon you need in the soulforge. There’s a different one each week so you have to wait for the one you need to come in. Costs 2000 dragonite.