I completed 100 battles on the last challenge of Glacial Peaks in an over night binge so I didn’t have to rely on the kindness of others to post a defense team to get the snotfrags. I did this to win an in guild challenge with one of my other guildies. I am posting this not to brag (although I kind of am) but to tell @Sirrian and @Nimhain some stats about it.
100 battles → Two Arcane Spirits
100 battles → Black Manacles devoured 7 times
Number 1 isn’t the issue. We all know the drop rate in Challenges is lower than in Explore. But number 2? 7 times?! 7 out of 100?! Others have commented on this percentage in other threads. Just thought you’d like to know.
Special thanks to @jmjeong for posting this team. It is crazy fast!!
Princess Elspeth / Bombot / Hero w/ Black manacles / Dwarven Miner +2 brown banner
Challenges aren’t necessarily faster than Explores. But by picking Challenges I took away the random team generation and guaranteed 4 troops from Glacial Peaks for every battle.
Because of the mechanics of the team I would fire the Princess, sacrificing Dwarven Miner. Hopefully giving enough brown to power Bombot. If Manacles was close then I would match gems to fill it as well. Then fire Bombot killing the first two troops and leaving the last two at 9 and 11 life respectively. Then fire Manacles to clean up. So every battle.
the percentage is correct. it just that you get 7% and the remaining 13% went to ai. the next time any ai ever in the game use black manacle, they get +13% from you and suck another extra percentages from another poor souls for up to 90% chance.
I’m not sure what the issue is here. The number of total battles is completely irrelevant to how Black Manacles functions. Someone posted that for 100 battles, Devour should of succeded 20 times or so…this is false. Everytime Black Manacles is cast, there is a 20% (1 in 5) chance that it will Devour a random opponent. Again, number of total battles is irrelevant to spell % success rate.
Well, assuming a single cast per game (which was not explicitly stated, granted), with a 20% chance of success you should expect about 1 devour every 5 games. In the absence of recall bias, and if the OP is indeed correct about there being 7 devours across 100 casts, the probability of this happening is ~0.0277% – very much not in line with projections.
For those interested, this is a binomial distribution problem:
f(k, n, p) = n!/(k!(n-k)!) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
where k is 7 successes, n is 100 trials, and p is the probability of a single success (0.2 for Black Manacles). (This formula only calculates the chance of exactly k successes, not <= k.) You can use this tool to solve these equations:
I appreciate the intricate math but again, it’s actualy not that complicated.
Everytime you Cast Manacles, there is an 80% chance that the Devour effect will not work. Each time that it is cast, the odds are heavily favored towards the Devour effect not being triggered. Stating that it should of worked 20 times in a 100 battles is incorrect.
Yes, it is in fact that complicated. The odds are against it firing on a given cast, but over a large enough sample size, the statistics should converge on the probability stated. Otherwise, that probability is in fact wrong, or there is a problem with the distribution of the pRNG.
Yes and no. What we should see is that if 100 people did 100 battles, then we should see around 2000 devours total. Not every person will get the 20% chance in their particular data set, but the more and more battles get added to the sample the closer and closer we should see it get to 20% overall.
