Team is investigating what would be involved in if we changed the troops to Ultra Rare troops, such as Faction bundles or offers set to X rarity.
If it goes through, I’ll need to make some posts to let everyone know as there will be confusion when an event starts having lower rarity troops than before
Doing this would greatly increase the number of shards needed to mythic these troops making it much more difficult for new and mid game players to level their troops for power levels unless they are playing a lot of vault and have a stockpile of ascension orbs as well as all the troops that require orbs of power. I’m guessing that the people complaining about this are all end game and don’t want to do a daily delve because currently pulling a single copy of a new delve troop only takes a couple thousand shards which are easy to get if you do the daily delve and or tuesday faction assault. For reference, on average I get 10k shards a month doing both of those things. While I strongly disagree with some changes that only benefit new players and punish those of us that are end game like VP reduction I don’t agree that making things slightly easier for endgame players is worth the cost to those that still need level 20 troops by drastically increasing the number of chaos shards those players would need.
Ok, release it as an epic as scheduled. How many shards do you think it is going to take to get 16 copies at around ~2.02% chance to pull a single copy?
Even though I have more than enough orbs I do use shards for them. Average is right around 10k per troop to mythic.
OK, I remember getting my ultra-rare and legendary troops maxed long before getting my epic troops maxed, in almost every delve region, and I’m still struggling to max all the new troops that have been added, because trying to draw them is insane, the odds suck.
SO… I looked at the drop rates for troops. Doing some maths, based on odds, the numbers I’m getting are these:
Rare → (23.49% chance to drop)X(? copies to mythic)X(10 shards per pull) = Aprox 234.9X? shards to mythic
Ultra-rare → (13.0% chance to drop)X(? copies to mythic)X(10 shards per pull) = Aprox 130X? shards to mythic
Epic → (5.99% chance to drop)X(16 copies to mythic)X(10 shards per pull) = Aprox 958.4 shards to mythic
Legendary → (2.52% chance to drop)X(? copies to mythic)X(10 shards per pull) = Aprox 25.2X? shards to mythic
Can anyone help with the missing numbers? Cus the game won’t tell me how many troops I used to ascend stuff I already have at mythic, and I can’t find that info anywhere, weirdly. Thanks.
going off memory, so if I’m wrong, sorry
Legendary: 1+5 = 6 copies
Epic: 1+5+10 = 16 copies
Ultra-Rare: 1+5+10+25 = 41 copies
Rare: 1+5+10+25+50 = 91 copies
Common: something stupid 
1+5+10+25+50+100 = 191 copies
Ouch. If that calculation were an animal, it would have to be shot to put it out of its misery. 
1.) Portals are 20 chaos shards a pull.
2.) You need to multiply by 100% / 5.99%, not by 5.99.
3.) Pulling troops first rolls on rarity, then on troop, you are not taking pool dilution into account.
Chaos shards required on average to mythic the epic troop added with current faction expansions:
100% / (5.99% / 2)) x 16 x 20 = 10684
Chaos shards required on average to mythic the epic troop added with the next cycle of faction expansions:
100% / (5.99% / 3)) x 16 x 20 = 16027
Chaos shards required on average if that epic troop would be an ultra-rare troop instead:
100% / (13.0% / 2) x 41 x 20 = 12615
So, yes, Ultra-Rare has my vote, especially since it’s excessively unlikely it will be useful in any way outside of a single PF500 faction run. A way to directly obtain those new troops, for a fixed amount of shards, would get my vote even more, because the current system aims to gouge long time players with every increasing costs whenever something gets added.
Thanks for the feedback!
Another question: will there be more delve schemes? Alternative deep, for example.
On the other end of the spectrum, what about giving the Faction a pair of Common troops (in each of the Faction’s colors) ?
Well, if have a way to do it where players don’t have to pull 191 copies to ascend it, then it’s possible. Two different commons at the same time? That ain’t great.
It would finally be a reason to use Major Ascend orbs…
Hey @Jeto,
I have two requests for ongoing weekend Faction Events:
What I mean is that, currently, when you add a new Epic troop to the Faction drop table, it shares its drop chance with the existing Epic troop, therefore halving the chance of either individual Epic troop dropping, and therefore requiring twice as many Chaos Shards to get 19 copies of the new Epic (4x Mythic without using Orbs).
Instead, add the “Epic drop chance” for the new troop to the total, then scale back to 100%. That way, the chance relative to other rarities remains the same. For example, an Epic drop currently has (slightly more than) half the chance of a Legendary drop. But each of the two individual Epic troops has the same chance (roughly) as the Legendary drop, because the “Epic drop chance” is shared between the two Epics.
Here’s some equations you can use, where p(t) means “probability of troop t dropping” and is a number between 0 and 1 (0% to 100%):
p(Faction Troop) = 0.45 and p(Treasure) = 0.55
Let’s ignore Treasure drops. Then, with just one Epic Faction Troop available, and using the first letter of each rarity:
p(R) + p(U) + p(E) + p(L) = 0.45
Adding a new troop (Epic, for now):
p(R) + p(U) + 2 x p(E) + p(L) = 0.45 + p(E)
We adjust the probabilities by multiplying both sides by a normalising factor, ‘f’, to bring the right hand side back to 0.45:
f = 0.45 / {0.45 + p(E)}
Now we get new probabilities for each troop, p’(t) = f x p(t)
In particular, for the two Epic Faction Troops, E1 and E2:
p’(E1) = p’(E2) = f x p(E)
And to illustrate why this is fairer, let’s look at the relative probability (call it ‘q’) of getting a particular Epic Faction Troop versus the Legendary Faction Troop:
q == p’(E2) / p’(L) = {f x p(E)} / {f x p(L)} = p(E) / p(L)
In constrast, we currently have:
p’(E2) = p(E) / 2 which implies p’(E2) / p’(L) = {p(E) / 2} / p(L) = {p(E) / p(L)} / 2 = q/2
Of course, you could also increase the probability of Faction Troops over Treasure Troops, to fully normalise the entire drop table, but I reckon that will hurt players more than it helps!
Hope this helps.