July 16, Day 6
Acct 1 –
Acct 2 –
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CW 28
don’t have the monday
- July 2019
- July 2019
- July 2019
- July 2019
- July 2019
- July 2019
CW 29
- July 2019
- July 2019
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I know dumb question, but have we tried asking the devs yet?
They have an openness for probabilities for rarities in chests now because of certain country chance laws. I know this wouldn’t fall under that category, but it’s not one that if we knew the formula could it be abused.
Ping them and ask? 
Then expect a stock response about not wanting to reveal these kind of things.
Until Apple & Google demand this is visible to players too. Not just chest %s.
It’s not the pvp score question. Which would elicit a different stock response.
And we can’t spend money on it. And regardless someone would bitch about it anyways.
But if @Saltypatra were to whisper in @Mithran ear it would be so much simpler. He gathers data and…
Even if the devs can be coaxed into stating the actual ratios, a very vocal group on here will no doubt still swear up & down they’re lying anyway & can’t be trusted, because that’s what devs do, right?
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Or in the case that something is not working correctly, in which case it helps to have some data to support this fact (like the screenshot in my other thread where the poster only got two tasks that day).
Though they did talk about explore traitstone drop rates on stream (Sirrian & Nimhain) and seemed to be a bit more open to the prospect just because chests were out in the open, so maybe if we catch them on a Q&A stream. But here, doubt it.
Okay, so…
After reset will be the end of my first seven days, but I encourage everyone to keep posting. I have everything submitted so far here in a big spreadsheet. I’m polling the data into two sets:
Daily: For those that posted consecutive data every day. This includes people with less than 7 submissions currently, so long as they have more than 2 consecutive days posting with no gaps, and people that missed a day and posted yesterdays screenshots.
All: All of the daily set + everything else posted in this thread except single-day screenshots for one time posters, which were omitted entirely.
Those that have posted more than once and daily with data that is currently omitted from daily (will be put on the “all” set for now, or omitted):
@eXDe - Only got data from the 13th and 14th
@Arelana - Missing June 12, 14 (and today). If you have these lying around, please upload and label
@Magnusimus - Missing data from 4th account on the 16th (today, currently, wanted to make sure you got the image before it is gone, you are currently on the daily set). Also, image from acct 3 on July 16 depicts a “kill 150 purple” top task at 58/150 for the second consecutive day. I have this kill task currently marked as omitted, since I believe this was a mistake, but tell me otherwise.
I’ll probably give this a once over again even after I’ve added the next set.
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- July 2019
Day 7, July 17
@Mithran, while you’re checking, please see if it’s possible to repeat a task on consecutive days.
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July 17, 2019 - Day 7
Acct 1 (Disregard Top)-
Acct 2 (Disregard Top)-
Acct 3 (Disregard Top)-
Acct 4 (Disregard Top)-
Right now I’m tracking mostly rarity dispersion. I was thinking of doing type as well for each individual task, but that would have made the whole table another dimension deep, so at most I am planning at this point was a count of task types within a given rarity to see if it was likely that there was any weighting shenanigans going on for given types of tasks. My initial estimates were that tasks seem to be weighted about equally except for traitstones, which look to be (thankfully) weighted against so that “any traitstone task” will appear only about as often as any other type of task. With a reasonable approximation of both those two factors, the average weekly value of the entire rewards table can be calculated.
So far, I’ve noticed a few things though:
- There have never been 3 of the same task rarity reported in the same day, for any rarity.
- Even if there are individual “slots” that determine what can roll, we can say with relative certainty tasks are sorted in rarity order when displayed, as there are no instances where this wasn’t true.
- There is no restriction on rolling three of the same type of task across different rarities.
- For users that have posted continuous data, zero mythic tasks have been reported (@Voq missed a day and was dropped from daily set to “all” set). Counting all data in this thread so far including incomplete sets, we currently have a total of one mythic task in 142 days worth of samples (426 task rolls). That is… significantly worse than what I estimated.
By the way, @Voq, on the missed day in question (Monday), did you log in? If you actually completely missed a login, no tasks are rolled for that day and I’ll move your set back into “daily”.
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