Just throwing a comment in here, July 16 2am pst approx, just pulled 15 shiny keys 1 at a time and pulled 0 Grub Wildshot. Thought that was kind of odd for something that’s supposedly 20%. Not impossible to hit 0, just odd given other people’s current experiences.
I did pull Grub Wildshots from Shiny Dust pulls so I’m not overly hurt by it
Jeto, I don’t know how to word this in a diplomatic way, your understanding of probabilities sucks. 
You are challenging the very basics of stochastics here, somewhat similar to claiming that 0 isn’t a number. So again, opening 50 chests and getting 5 hits, at a supposedly 20% chance, is the very definition of an outlier. It’s not a highly significant outlier, on its own still well within what could be considered bad luck. However, this wasn’t an isolated incident, and there were outliers that surpassed this one by several magnitudes.
Going with your coin example, if you flip it 100 times and only get heads twice it doesn’t guarantee it’s a trick coin, it would still be unreasonable to believe otherwise.
If you had to open 500 chests to end up past 35 tokens it actually proves beyond any reasonable doubt that something is off. At 20% chance your expected hits is 100, and your expected tokens gained from each hit is 1.65, for a total of 165 tokens on average. Stochastics say you should be reaching 35 tokens at around 106 chests opened, at the peak of the bell curve, with the chance of needing less/more chests dropping off fast the further away you get from 106.
Please don’t get this wrong, I appreciate the effort you are putting into this. However, all observed numbers, especially the ones you provided yourself, serve as very strong indicator that shiny chests are broken. I understand this is a touchy topic, it still needs to get looked at by someone experienced in that area. Is there any chance to take a shortcut here, without having to go back and forth a dozen times, like with similar incidents back when Kafka was in charge? Pretty please?
Perhaps kingdom progression shouldn’t be locked behind shiny troop probability…
If you crunch the numbers and your math actually maths? It’s a lot more common than you’d believe.
Assuming 15 “independent” attempts at the token, with a 20% chance to pull the token? The probability that you don’t pull a single one of those tokens in 15 draws? P = (1 - 0.2) ^ 15 which comes out to roughly 3.5% of the time. Something like 1-in-28 in thereabouts.
I could continue to pull more and not hit and improve the rarity of the occurrence, but its not like I’m going to get reimbursed for any of the shiny keys.
We can farm shiny dust now, so It does soften any probability anomolies.
It really doesn’t, unless you’ve already got all troops at shiny level 3. The main incentive to spend shiny keys is Journey week, to improve the spell of the featured Pathfinder to create an extra gem. This used to just barely work out with the 7 shiny keys we get each week, when the featured drop chance was still working at 20%.
My strategy with shiny troops, is every day buy 3 shiny keys from pvp shop+guild events,my goal is weekly shiny troop to lvl.2 ,10 shiny tokens from chest + 5 tokens from events,after that I stop opening shiny chest this week,and start opening every Monday.It’ working very well,only one week i not obtain 10 tokens from chest, only 8,it’s good strategy for constantly kingdom progress. And now we can farm shiny dust
. Here is proof is working
.Kingdom prestige start when Mine Cart is then week shiny troop an row by row is week by week on pic.
This was what I got when calculating the expected value for shiny keys:
=0.10+0.14+0.09=0.33 tokens per chest
So on average:
3 chests ≈ 1 token
30 chests ≈ 10 tokens (Enough for Shiny 2*)
90 chests ≈ 30 tokens (Enough for Shiny 3*)
*Assumes the player got 5 shiny tokens from the Guild Event rewards
I opened 24 chests and got the 10 tokens I wanted to get Hell Troll to Shiny 2, which was my goal. That is lower than, but still in reasonable range of my expected value.
