Loot Boxes Questions

This is tricky because it’s highly subjective.

The textbook case is when a gacha troop is only available via premium currency at such low odds it’s improbable you’ll get it without spending in excess. Let’s pick some random numbers way more understandable than how they’re usually obscured.

Let’s say in our imaginary compulsive game spending one Magic Carrot gets you a shot at a 0.1% chance of getting a troop that is stronger than any other troop in the game and is only going to be available this week, with no prospects of re-release. So we expect a buy-in of what, 1,000 carrots on average?

Now imagine players get 1 carrot per week. High-end players (the kind that already have troops like this one) can get up to 10 from events. So conceivably a player who saved up for a year might have 520. Only about a 50% shot.

Now imagine you can buy a carrot for $1, 11 for $10, or 120 for $100.

What we have here is a situation where no player has any reasonable chance of getting the troop without spending a significant amount of money. Now, imagine if this event is paired with a special stage that’s only reasonable to beat with this specific troop, and the reward is another unique troop that will be useful in next week’s event. Clock’s ticking, buddy. If you don’t get this troop, you’re behind next week!

(It’s never actually this easy to figure out your odds. Usually you pay dollars for a premium currency that you spend on other items that you redeem for the gacha troop. That ducks around strict laws that dictate a loot crate == “paying money for a chance at an item”. It turns out they don’t usually close the loop and define it as “paying money for an item that is only usable as redemption for a chance at an item”. The tobacco CEOs would like to point out so long as your one letter different from the law it’s totally ethical.

A more common compulsive purchase situation involves dollars → Currency 1 → Event that gives Currency 2 → Currency 2 is redeemable for Currency 3 → Currency 3 is redeemable for gacha chance.)

GoW definitely isn’t on that end of the spectrum. It takes some hyperbole to suggest GoW is that bad. In those games you trade dollars for items that are needed to win unique things. In GoW you spend dollars on gems that are turned in for shop tiers that give you sigils and stat bonuses in events that award points that affect your standing that might get you an Orb of Power redeemable for a troop. Totally different and totally not layers of misdirection!

It’s observable that gems, the premium currency, are vital to placing on leaderboards. It’s also observable that only the players in higher-tier guilds get enough gems to consider this. It’s also observable that every passing update puts a harder crimp on the gem supply.

FLASH OFFER!

YOU CAN GET A MEDIOCRE TROOP AND 50 GEMS FOR ONLY $4.99 TODAY ONLY! ACT NOW! A $90 VALUE!

Ahem. I was–

MONTHLY DEAL

FOR JUST $39.99 YOU CAN GET ALL THIS GARBAGE AND A RANDOM LEGENDARY! A $120 VALUE!

O… k. As I was–

SAY FRIEND! YOU JUST GOT A MYTHIC!

FOR ONLY $24.99, YOU CAN GET THE TRAITSTONES AND SOULS YOU ALREADY HAVE TO MAXIMIZE IT! THIS IS A $90 VALUE!

That we’re not there today doesn’t mean the game isn’t appealing to the same mental hooks in other ways.

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