How many Dragonite eggs to open to get 6 basic troops?

Annoying? Yes.

“Statistically impossible”? (laughs in combinatorial probability spreadsheet)

Here’s how the overall probability of having Y unique dragons after X eggs actually maps out:

gemsof-dragons-vs-eggs

(Ask me how this is calculated. I dare you.)

15 eggs is the “expected value”, but as you can see there is a significant chance of NOT having a full set by then, and even a 3% chance of not even having 5 dragons yet!

Even by 30 eggs, there’s still a ~2.5% chance of NOT having the full set.

So it really is more likely than you think.

Alternative plots of the same data

Here’s a non-stacked version:

And here’s a Y-logarithmic plot:

Note how in a logarithmic plot, each series converges to a “straight line” aka. an exponential decay of * (# dragons / 6) per egg crafted, which is of course the basic probability of getting a duplicate.

(PS - if you are tracking your craft dates for individual eggs, or at least the sequential order, I’d love to add them to my spreadsheet data.)

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