I multiplied by 6 per my formula that you quoted. Maybe you accidentally multiplied by 4 instead?
Indeed. The odds of (at least 2 kills first turn by Death in 4 games out of 20 but not in a row) is around 1.5% - not special at all. 
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lol I missed the x 6 on your formula, and, yes, I did multiply it by 4 the first time 
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So whatâs the chance of all 4 troops dying the same time after a Death cast?
It happened to me today, was pretty fucking tilted.
1 in 10,000.
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This thread hurts my head (too many maths). I canât wait for the change to death mark on consoles though.
Another lottery winner!
All hail death mark the RNGesus best companion!
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Nerf Death please âŚ
The human brain has a hard time dealing with probability, because it doesnât really exist. âRandomâ and âChanceâ are concepts for attempting to make predictions about situations we donât have sufficient information to do so. Each event is âfixedâ, it was only ever going to happen a certain way. Unlikely things happen all the time, but we consider certain events more significant than other equally unlikely events, and so some seem more surprising or unexpected. Whatâs the chance of encountering a specific troop lineup, or certain gems falling, or any other random event? Given sufficient data, we could calculate any of it, but most of it we donât find significant. Itâs the extremely negative events that stand out in our minds, that make us wonder what the chance of it occurring was.
And we group events in ways that distort the statistics. What if one more or one less troop had died, or it had taken one more turn, or one fewer? There are a ton of possible events that would all trigger the response of âThat was a negative experience that should have been rareâ, but youâve pulled out a specific one and calculated the chances of that exact event happening, rather than looking at all the similar events that only vary slightly, and calculating the chances for any of them to occur.
The rarity of event also has little to no impact on when it could occur. Even if something only happens once in a million times, why shouldnât it happen within the first 100 trials? Repeated trials may bear out the belief that itâs a rare event, but just being rare doesnât mean that it will never happen, or that when it does it must necessarily be after many trials. Statistics are only valid in the long run, and cannot be relied upon for accurately predicting short stretches.
Was that your shot? I am a huge Destiny addict!
@Kurokazna your assumption that 10,000 players faced a death cast 3-4 times in a week sounded fairly reasonable to me; for what it is worth.
The only thing is that OP implied he had similar occur 4 times in a row which is quite a stretch
No, it was a random âmultikillâ gif