If that’s true, I’ve never seen it ever happen…
1 Like
On the Console a status effect can wear off turn 1, wonder if it’s the same for PC
i can admit to burning a troop just for them to get a turn and it cleanse. This happened to old poison as well.[quote=“TaliaParks, post:22, topic:9634, full:true”]
On the Console a status effect can wear off turn 1, wonder if it’s the same for PC
[/quote]
from my experience it is.
Well, assuming it’s true, and assuming the best case – that the cleanse occurs before Death Mark would otherwise kill the troop – what that means is there’s a 10% chance for the troop to have 100% chance to survive, and 90% chance for the troop to have 90% chance to survive. That means that on turn 1, any given troop afflicted with Death Mark would have a chance of (0.1 * 1) + (0.9 * 0.9), or 91% chance to survive, instead of the 90% I was assuming before.
That means that the chance of all 4 troops surviving one round of Death Mark is (0.91)^4, or about 68.5%. Still works out to about 31.5% chance of losing one troop before you can do anything about it, which is much worse than the odds you get with just about everything else.
If you don’t lose a troop on turn 1 and you cannot cleanse, then the odds for all troops to survive round 2 become: ((0.1 * 1) + (0.9 * ((0.2 * 1) + (0.8 * 0.9))))^4, or about 0.74, which is 74%. That means the total odds of surviving two rounds without losing a troop are (about) 50%. There’s a 50% chance you’ll lose at least one troop in two rounds.
EDIT: Forgot to factor in the “cleansed in turn 1” factor to the turn 2 survival rate.
EDIT 2: Was corrected on Death Mark’s 10% odds not increasing over time. Lowers the number a lot, but still 50%.
3 Likes
is that assuming that the deathmark is a cumulative chance just like the cleanse is?
Oooh, good point. I think you’re right, it’s a flat 10%, not accumulating.
EDIT: And fixed. ~50% chance after two rounds.
It would be op if deathmark was accumulating, then i think it would be everywhere as well. I can say for sure though that it is a strong instant kill but looking at it from maw’s third trait, it is less powerful percentage wise.
Maw’s third trait is much less than 31% odds. However, this is more closely comparable to Maw’s spell (as it requires mana, can be silenced, drained, etc) so in that light it’s about on par with the deadliness. It isn’t 100% chance like Maw’s is, but it has the potential to wipe out an entire enemy team after a couple rounds.
Basically, this spell will be a “deny at all costs” type spell, like Maw’s (and Mab’s to a degree). And that might be tough to achieve, as Death uses three mana types.
EDIT: I feel obligated to once again indicate that this is all speculation. Death is unreleased and therefore can change without warning.
1 Like
What are Death’s Traits? Immunity to Silence at all?
Traits and other spoilery stuff here:
So he’s quite counterable, has a high Mana cost and will most likely be Manablocked partially. Sounds like he’ll be targeted and rendered useless if the player plans properly.
In other words, if he kills you, YOU probably messed up.
Potentially. We’ll see how it plays out. I have faith that the dev team will balance things properly.
By percentage maw’s third trait is 15% to active (even though it is skull hits) vs death mark’s 10% (which is used by a spell)
Once more: If Death gets a cast off, it has a 31.5% chance of killing a troop without you having any chance to retalliate. It might kill more, and if you don’t have a cleanse, then it’ll be 50% by turn 2.
Considering death yes this is true but i was typing from a single target perspective. I think there are troops that only deathmark a single target.
Except that even if that is true, death could still wipe your entire team without giving a chance to stop it (obviously if you don’t have impervious troops).
1 Like
This math isnt’ quite correct. Both cleanse and kill have a 34.39% chance to pop on one of the units on the first turn. Now if cleanse pops on the unit that would have got hit by the kill, cleanse comes first (as it does with literally every other cleanseable status effect), so kill would never pop. This means kill’s 34.39% chance gets reduced to 25.79%. Basically, you have a 25% chance to lose a unit without you being able to do anything about it when death casts. I mean, it’s not ideal really, but it’s not the worst.
I would like to see the devs have a 1 turn wait for both cleanse and death, with the deathmark status. That way it isn’t more likely to cleanse, but you have a turn to react.
Three things can happen on turn 1 for a given deathmarked troop:
A) They can be cleansed. The probability of this is 10%.
B) They can not be cleansed, and can die from the deathmark. The probability of this is 10% of the remaining 90%, or 9%.
C) They can be neither cleansed nor killed. The probability of this is the remaining 81%.
Therefore the odds of a given troop surviving turn 1 is 91%, or 81% + 10%.
The odds of all 4 troops surviving is (0.91^4), or 0.685, or 68.5%.
The odds of at least 1 troop dying is 1-0.685, or 31.5%.
2 Likes
I simplified it to a 10 sided die roll, with the chance of rolling a 1 on 4 rolls.
That’s 1-(9/10)^4, which comes out to 34.39% which applies to both cleanse and kill. Then I just figured out what 75% of 34.39 was, since that would be close enough.
You’re assuming the 10% rolls are not possible to land on the same one. Lets say the computer is rolling a 100 sided die as the simulator. Kill and cleanse take up certain sides of that die, but depending on how it’s programmed, they can potentially take up the same side of the die (which is why burn and deathmark can go off in the same turn). So if cleanse is #s 30-40 and kill is #s 35-45, cleanse will actually be at 10% and kill would be at 5%. This is why it’s better to just assume both have the same chance and do the math from there.
Why would you assume deathmark is less than 10% chance per turn? It’s explicitly stated in the game that there’s a 10% chance per turn to die from it.
Of course, I can’t see the code, so I go with what makes the most intuitive sense. I’d expect the logic would look something like:
if (rand(100) < 10 * debuffAge) { cleanseDebuffs(); }
if (hasDeathmark) { if (rand(100) < 10) { die(); } }