The Devil on 26th and 58th
| Gnome | TFH | KoS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | ||
| 11 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 1 | ||
| 6 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 1 | ||
| 7 | 1 | ||
| 7 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 1 | ||
| 58 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
Got my 2nd Devil today after 9 battles.
FH
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KOS
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FH
Why fix something when you can just keep pretending everything works as announced?
1 Like
Friday, Oct 29
Got 2 copies yesterday
All samples were taken AFTER daily reset window (starting at 2 am PST) butâŚ
Did NOT see daily refresh screen (account was in explore just before daily reset took place, and stayed there until first sample set was taken)
Did NOT restart client
Battle - encounter
3 - KOS
5 - Ingot gnome 9 legendary ingots
7 - regular treasure gnome
15 - KOS
18 - KOS (interesting artifact to check on the recording here, double kill with single 4 skull match) about 6:10
24 - KOS
29 - KOS
34 - KOS
36 - KOS
44 - KOS
46 - KOS
49 - KOS
51 - KOS
53 - Soul Gnome
63 - KOS
64 - KOS
69 - KOS
70 - KOS
72 - KOS
73 - KOS
75 - KOS
76 - KOS
81 - KOS
89 - KOS
99 - KOS
101 - KOS
After 112 battles, clicked out to map to take daily reset splash screen and start a new sample set. Did NOT restart client. Kept recording through this.
4 - KOS
5 - KOS
7 - TFH (with devil drop)
8 - KOS
13 - TFH (with devil drop)
14 - treasure gnome
17 - Daemon Gnome
21 - KOS
22 - KOS
25 - KOS
26 - KOS
30 - KOS
32 - KOS
36 - KOS
41 - KOS
45 - KOS
48 - KOS
56 - KOS
59 - KOS
61 - KOS
63 - KOS
64 - Jewel Gnome
68 - KOS
70 - KOS
75 - KOS
82 - KOS
84 - KOS
89 - KOS
97 - Treasure Gnome
100 - Soul Gnome
106 - KOS
107 - KOS
Stopped at 110 battles.
Before reset - 23 more KOS, 0 TFH, 3 gnomes
After reset - 2 TFH (battles 7 and 13, 1 KOS between them 3 total KOS encountered before the 2nd TFH)
25 KOS (22 of them after both TFH)
5 gnomes
Edit:
(still not sure what is going on with the double skill kill at 6:10)
From this we can reasonably glean:
Chance reset is determined by when the server receives the âdaily resetâ token from the client. Not sure if this will impact the last day of the event since encounter chance is ultimately governed by the server, but the data above shows that if I did not hit the daily reset splash screen for Friday, Iâm still getting Thursdayâs drop rates.
Similarly, is unlikely the data patch had anything to do with chancing these rates. When you are asked to âforce quit and restart the clientâ after a server side fix, this is usually out of an abundance of caution that there isnât some kind of edge case interaction. Although some things really are cached and this does interfere with them.
With a little bit of speculation, one way to get a third daily drop easily would be to not know this is how it works, have the game logged from the previous dayâs reset past the time when the reset token would be sent but not having encountered anything that forced it yet, play for a bit on the previous dayâs drop rates when you got none, then return to map to hit the daily refresh splash screen, and continue playing with reset rates. Iâve done this on multiple occasions since I just leave the game logged in and if you are in certain locations like PvP or even some events (that havenât expired) the client wonât even check for daily reset until you hit the map, sometimes not even until you check your mail. This remains a possibility for our anecdotal report linked above.
Still, Iâd like to get more data on this. Maybe people can mark down quick tallies of how many explore runs they did after encountering the second TFH with no third one? That seems pretty easy to track.
I have enough already to call that it is at least misleading in the way presented, but there has already been a stated intent to run other events using this type of encounter rate reduction so it would be good to know that it is at least working correctly. Iâd like at least one confirmed âhitâ on the third daily copy Iâll be able to write it off as massively misleading communication (and give feedback accordingly), but if we could show an absence of one in say few thousand battles it leans more likely that it is broken and it will still be broken if they try to do something similar again.
7 Likes
Not sure if itâs been said yet, but thank you for your hard work in collecting and analyzing this data. Based on preliminary reports from community members, it seemed quite clear that, even if a third devil were obtainable, it was so rare as to be essentially non-existent, and your data quantifies and vindicates this assertion.
I have done at least 400 explore battles over the past week (Mon, Wed, Thurs; ignoring bugged Tues) beyond the second flesh horror on each day and have not seen a third one since.
5 Likes
Similarly, I have not had a 3rd Devil any day and have 4.25k (discounting Arena/FA/AB/Dungeons/WE) trophies worth of E1/E5/E12. Split is E9-12 65%, E5-7, 10%, E1 25% approximately. I did not log every battle, but as stated, itâs not going to matter. Tuesday was my least prolific explore day of the week, noting the bug and doing FA for shards.
2 Likes
1 - KoS
2 - KoS
3
4 - KoS
5 - KoS
6
7
8
9 - KoS
10
11 - KoS
12 - KoS
13 - Treasure Gnome
14 - KoS
15 - Glory Gnome
16 - KoS
starting to wonder wtfâŚ
17 - KoS
18
19
20 - TFH
21 - KoS
22 - TFH
sooooooâŚidk. seems weirdâŚ
1 Like
| Gnome | TFH | KoS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | |||
| 1 | Jewel | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | Pet | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| TOTAL | 19 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
Took 28 battles to find my 2nd Devil today.
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KOS
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KOS
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KOS
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KOS
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KOS
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FH
FH
1 Like
No sample from me today, but I have a report from a guild member that has been struggling to get even the first copy for the last two days (confirmed full restart between days), doing an hour in CPVP with phonecia per day (so by all accounts here, way more than enough to get 2 copies, without even finding one).
Iâve only seen a few anecdotal reports of in other threads of people taking âhoursâ to find the first daily copy without context of how many battles they are doing per hour or any other factor. Anybody else seeing this? Iâm looking for the longest streak of not even finding one TFH after a confirmed daily restart. Without knowing other factors, like average play speed (including distractions etc), it is hard to tell how much of an artifact this report would be compared to the data provided here.
Iâm also noticing a lot of people finding the second TFH very quickly after the first. In fact, the average amount of battles (and total battlecrashers) reported in this thread between the first and second TFH is lower than the average recorded amount of battles (/battlecrashers) between the start of the day and the first TFH. It is close enough where, empirically, we can take this to mean the encounter rate of the first TFH of the day and the second TFH of the day have no significant statistical difference based on this sample, but Iâm starting to wonder if something else is going on here.
Thanks everyone for your efforts. Keep em coming if you have em. I figure most people here have probably moved on to the faction event by now, so, unfortunately, there isnât enough hard data here to give a high confidence estimate that the chance of the third encounter is zero, but Iâd say there is enough to show the existence of a drop rate âcliffâ after the second drop. This is still important because the devs were given ample opportunity to clarify why this extreme drop off was being observed (and/or cap) and it was once again written off as being âunluckyâ while both the original and clarified version of how the event was stated to work âencounter rate will decrease (drastically) every time it is defeatedâ do not track with general player experience or the data gathered.
1 Like
I didnât count the number of battles, but it took me 28 minutes of farming one-shot explores before I found my second TFH on Friday.
1 Like
I did not find my first TFH until my 23rd eligible battle after reset today (3 E12 explores and then an E1 explore). My second TFH occurred two battles later.
Yesterday
Explore 1
TFH in battles 4 and 8
I KoS in battle 2
Did 10 battles total
I have 4 mythic copies now so not sure if Iâll chase more
Found 2nd Devil today after 20 battles.
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FH
KOS
KOS
Soul Gnome
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KOS
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KOS
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KOS
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FH
Is today the last day? If so I ended up with 13 copies total at mythic. (used a blue orb on 1st day)
| Gnome | TFH | KoS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | |||
| 7 | 1 | |||
| 10 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 8 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| TOTAL | 46 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
1
2
3
4
5 - TFH
6 - TFH
Body seems unclear, is this a complete sentence?