Data collection for guild wars

My current progress (not sure how secret this is or how long it’ll “stay correct”):

Based on several battles where enemy got no turns (thus mo mana or damage), I was able to narrow down the A% (speed bonus multiplier).

A = 1, or 0.01

That means the maximum SPEED_BONUS is 30 x 0.01 = .3 (if you finish in 0 turns) or more realistically .29 for finishing in 1 turn.

While I’m still working on the mana, damage and survival multipliers, I have concluded they sum .475 (these values are multiplied by 4 (4 surviving troops, max 4 for mana and max 4 for damage), you get 1.9).

Thus, maximum multiplier 4 x 0.5 (4 daily color troops) + 1.9 + .3 = 4.2

Putting that into the formula:
TOTAL = BASE + BASE × MULTIPLIER
Or, more simply
TOTAL = BASE × (MULTIPLIER + 1)

MAX = BASE x (5.2)

So maximum score you can get in a day is:
1500 x 5.2 = 9800

1500 is the sum of 250 + 275 + 300 + 325 + 350

Hopefully will be able to narrow down at least one of the other multipliers tomorrow.

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This is where I was at, too:

So with two independent people coming to a similar answer, I’m feeling good about that.

I thought I potentially saw somewhere a mention of moves being changed to cap at 50 instead, but couldn’t find anything on that just now, so will assume it was just in my head.

I’ve also been a bit suspicious of True Damage, lately. I know it only counts the actual damage you do, i.e. to Life, so the potential for damage is less. However, I recently had a couple of battles where I only took 1-2 skull hits at 60-80 damage, and killed all four opponents with True Damage/Rope Dart along with a bonus, cascading skull hit or two, at over 100 Life each, but seemed to score a bit low despite not taking many turns or losing Troops, etc. (or using off-colour). If the ratio still caps out at 4:1, this seems a bit weird, so I guess I wonder if either that ratio has changed (e.g. now caps out at 6:1 or 8:1) or something else is happening to make True Damage/similar not count properly.

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I guess it’s because GoW is a 5 year game and only has a player base to pull in several $million in 6 years, as compared to Pokemon Go which pulls in $billions over its lifetime - I didn’t get too many responses to help.
I may have enough data on hand (recorded videos), but not the time to transcribe them.
Here’s an example of what I do to dissect one single video.

My guess is it may need as few as 5-10 sets of data, maybe as many as 30-50, since there are only so many parameters to decode. But I don’t personally have the time to pursue it to completion.

“Turns” is pretty unambiguous and there are enough scores around so 9,800 and also the turn multiplier should be a well known secret.
The other parameters are much harder to track down - let’s look at a single one - “mana”:

  • Does this include starting mana bonus? Medal of Anu? Traits/Talents?
  • Does it include mana gained from traits/talents?
  • Does it include overflow mana? (e.g. gained 5, added 3 to troop, 2 wasted)
  • Is it decreased for mana drained? (i.e. counts as negative gain)
  • etc.

Hence so many columns in my first-cut spreadsheet.

Damage - FWIW from my experience (B4-5, B9-15) it feels like true damage teams (2x Bee, 2x convertor) never score too highly even with 1st turn wins with few actions. Not damaging the opponent’s Armor counts against you (my conjecture only).

If we knew all the parameters for calculation, one could make edge-case decisions, such as spending an extra turn to collect 24 more mana to make a cap to score more the next turn, instead of finishing off the opponent this very turn. For most people though, I’ve come to believe they are not invested in GW, and/or would not be able to use information on the fly, rendering the exercise moot. Picking a ready made team from the GoW Library (discord) and scoring 9400-9700 consistently each week is pretty darn fine.

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Mix of this ^, and

not so much this, but I think I would have been more invested in working it out if Brackets hadn’t been so messed up throughout my time here and there was more of a tangible reward. Hard to be too invested otherwise.

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Noticed the same thing about true damage. On purple day, I used a skull team and got 100% bonus for all fights (1.9) only impacted by turns. Meanwhile, another guildmate used Gray King and did considerably worse, even when not taking any damage (which was weird since that should default to 4 based on the formula.

That leads me to the unsettling direction that even the pseudo-abstracted formula is not entirely correct. It works fine for turns, color bonus and total value of other bonuses. However, as @cyberkiwi pointed out, there are a lot of other variables.

The only way I see us solving this is reducing the variables further:

  1. Determine survivability bonus (most likely testable with Fire Bomb or Dwarven Slayer to kill last enemy)
  2. Collect no mana (4x Keghammer, Gemhammer or Tau against very weak team)
  3. Deal only lethal/devour damage (i.e. deal no damage)
  4. Deal only true damage

2 would be the easiest to test. Since we know the color bonus and “know” the turn bonus, and assume that the remaining 1.9 is correct, if we collect no mana while receiving no damage, then the mana multipler is:
MANA = 1.9 - POINTS/BASE - 1 - [COLOR] - [TURNS]

I would test this today but first enemy is too strong to one-shot with any of those empowered troops.

Next step would be figuring out 1 (survivability bonus). This would “easily” be tested by not letting opponent get a turn and finishing off with Fire Bomb or Dwarven Slayer.

Once those are out of the way, we’ll know the damage multiplier and can test lethal/devour/true damage and how it actually affects end result.

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Not in your head, I remembered too! I had trouble finding it, but it was communicated in a weekly event post: Ladyhawk (PC/Mobile and Console)

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Interesting. With 50 moves, that means the total points coming in from turns is .5 instead of .3. But since we assume the max modifier is 5.2, then that leaves 1.7 instead of 1.9 for the remaining 3 multipliers.

Another way of looking at it is:
Max color bonus: 2 (4 x .5)
Max speed bonus: .5 (50 * .01)
Max everything else: 1.7

So about half your score is based on using the day’s colors (2) and the other is quickly overpowering the other team (2.2).

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@Avathar Thanks!

This should realistically be added to the Help Centre article (as I believe it currently shows 30 moves per Sirrian’s original forums post).

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Tomorrow is red day so will be a good test of Fire Bomb. Will post results if I manage to narrow anything else down.

Pretty confident on the survival multiplier.

1st battle:

  • 1 fire bomb, 3 other red troops (red day)
  • 1263 points
  • 5 turns

1263/250 - 1 = 4.05
4.05 - 2 (4x red troops with 50% bonus) - .45 (50-5 x 1% speed bonus) = 1.6

Maximum extra multipler: 1.7
Hypothesis: Survival multipler = .1 or 10% per troop

2nd battle:

  • 2 fire bombs, and 2 other red troops
  • 1361 points
  • 5 turns

1361/275 - 1 = 3.95
3.95 - 2 (4x red troops with 50% bonus) - .45 (50-5 x 1% speed bonus) = 1.5

Maximum extra multipler: 1.7
Conclusion: Survival multipler = .1 or 10% per troop

Tomorrow is yellow day so hoping for a 4x Tau or Keghammer team on first battles to confirm mana multiplier.

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I think we cracked it!

Guildmate ran a 4x keghammer team today for first battle, getting 2690 points, or 690 without defense bonus.

690/250 - 1 = 1.76 (Out of max 4.2)

No day’s color troops were used, so that doesn’t factor in.
No mana generated, so doesn’t factor in.
No troops died, so (as per previous post): 4 × .1 = .4
Took 4 turns: (50 - 4) × .01 = .46

That leaves only damage bonus: 1.76 - .4 - .46 = .9.

Since damage dealt was much higher than received, assume max damage bonus, meaning damage multiplier = .9 / 4 = .225

To get mana bonus, we subtract all that from max multiplier:

4.2 - 2 (color) - .5 (speed) - .4 (survival) - .9 (damage) = .4 (mana).

Since we got 0 out of maximum 4, that means mana multiplier = .4 / 4 = .1

Full formula then reads:

FINAL_SCORE = BASE_SCORE + BASE_SCORE * (COLOR_BONUS + SURVIVAL_BONUS + SPEED_BONUS + MANA_BONUS + DAMAGE_BONUS)

FINAL_SCORE = BASE_SCORE + BASE_SCORE * (COLOR_BONUS + Survivors × .1 + Max(50-Turns) × .01 + Min(4, My_Mana/Enemy_Mana) × .1 + Min(4, Damage_Dealt/Damage_Received) × .225)

This assumes that empowered troops (and so anu and traits that give starting mana) do not count as generated mana.

Feel free to verify for yourselves.

TLDR: Variables from website formula:
A (Survival) = 10% (Max 40% or .4)
B (Speed) = 1% (Max 50% or .5)
C (Mana) = 10% (Max 40% or .4)
D (Damage) = 22.5% (Max 90% or .9)
COLOR = 1-50% (Max 200% or 2)

MAX_POINTS = BASE × (1 + 2 + .4 + .5 + .4 + .9) = BASE × (5.2)

EDIT: Besides the above formula, here are things that still need testing:

  • Damage-based
    • True damage
    • Armor removers (mang, megavore, etc)
    • (Optional) Status effect damage (poison, bleed, burn)
  • Mana-based
    • Mana drain
    • Banners
    • “Wasted” mana (mana earned beyond what troops need)
    • Enchanted
    • Spells/traits that give mana

I believe that empowered/Medal of Anu/starting mana traits do not count as mana, but will check during my own Keghammer fight tomorrow. Also because of this:

We base another bonus on mana collected during play

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I found this quite interesting. And awesome work overall btw, thank you!!!

Does this mean that the damage Fire Bomb inflicts on itself isn’t counted as damage against you for the calculations, or was the damage you dealt in these fights far enough in excess for it not to matter?

E.g. if I go in to a random battle and explode some Fire Bombs, this is what I see:

I’ve typically avoided using Vash’Dagon for this very reason. Could the damage inflicted even be counted towards your own damage bonus?? That would be a little bit crazy (・o・) (and perhaps reason for players to be angry at concealing the formula making it harder to uncover discrepancies like this – although I guess you didn’t need it here). Would be a bit of a twist if using Vash’Dagon was in fact a way to max out damage :sweat_smile:.

Also wanted to throw it out there that the initial ‘-1’ or 1x base score might be a ‘win’ bonus that you don’t receive when losing? Making it based on # of enemy troops remaining instead could encourage people to keep giving it their all against tougher opponents (but maybe further incentivise a summoning defence).

This part, I mean:

I’ll be interested to see for sure whether or not Empowered traits or similar count as mana generation, since I wouldn’t have thought the calculation to be clever enough to distinguish mana gained regardless of source, but maybe it really does just take into account mana generated from the board (matches, explosions, destructions).

I’d actually also be interested to know whether mana generated for colours your troops don’t use counts. This could be one explanation for why using exploders does very well for the mana generation part of one’s score. Alternatively, I wonder whether exploded Gems count as .5 (banker’s rounded), or .8 (the previous amount from explosions) or even the full 1 mana in the calculations. It’s hard not to be suspicious of laziness (or just lack of action/attention) based on the amount of attention (not a lot) given to Guild Wars over the years.

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Great questions! And I’ll answer based on my observations:

I believe this counts as lethal damage, which is excluded based on info from zendesk:

  • Devour & Death Mark (insta-kill skills) do not count as damage

Also, in my battles, I fought against very low level troops (750 and 3000 power), so my fire bomb had more life than their whole team, and in second battle I had 2 of them. Since I only noticed a .1 and and .2 difference in the multiplier, which correspond nicely with losing 1 and 2 troops, I concluded that the only thing affecting the multiplier was loss of troop and not fire bomb’s self-damage.

Possible. All my calculations involve winning so let’s go with that idea until it’s tested. If that’s the case, this is what I’d expect from a lost battle:

TOTAL = BASE * (COLOR_BONUS + TURN_BONUS + MANA_BONUS + DAMAGE_BONUS)

But damage and mana bonus could be low or 0 if you lose to looping. So it might be “simplified” to:

TOTAL = BASE * (COLOR_BONUS + TURN_BONUS)

Or

MAX_LIKELY_LOSS_TOTAL = BASE * (2 + .5) = BASE * 2.5

MAX_LOSS_TOTAL = BASE * (2 + .5 + .4 + .9) = BASE * 3.8

From keghammer fight, each has 12 mana, so 48 on guildmate’s side. Enemy got 11 mana. This would be max mana bonus since 48 / 11 > 4. Yet there’s .4 missing (everything else maxed), which is what led me to the mana bonus/multiplier conclusion. As mentioned, feel free to test on your own and but I believe that any starting mana is excluded but initial exploders count.

That’s one of the unknowns under “wasted” mana.

Things that could “easily” be tested:

  • Ally troop killers and devourers (vash, widow queen, sacrificial priest, black beast, etc)
  • Use armor removers and take enough damage that it might make a difference. I.e. enemy team has 50 total life and 50 total armor. Take at least 25 damage. If armor strip counts, you’ll get close to full damage bonus. If it doesn’t count as damage, then you’ll get close to half that.
  • Use only true damage dealers and try to not take damage.

I don’t know how to test mana except to carefully keep track of everything generated, which is tedious and difficult unless you play very slowly and probably record fight.

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Sorry for being a bit rambly in my thoughts. Thinking back to times that I’ve lost, especially on low-levelled alts where I’ve had a look at the difference between losing with a colour team vs off-colour team, my initial suggestion there seems unlikely thanks to the way you’ve spelled it out – i.e. 2.5 * BASE seems much more generous than I’ve ever seen in points from a loss. It seems more likely that it would be something like 0.2 * TOTAL, but I won’t conjecture too much without thinking about it more rigourously :sweat_smile:.

From reading your explanation, it seemed like the .4 missing relied upon the damage multiplier that you worked out by assuming mana collected was 0, i.e. zero multiplier from the x1.76 observed being allocated to the mana bonus.

If we were to make an alternate assumption that the Mana bonus was actually maxed, due to the 48/11 ratio, it wouldn’t be possible to work out how much of the remaining multiplier was from damage and how much from mana, right?

Thanks. Crazy!!!

I suppose if mana was considered maxed, that would leave an awfully large chunk for mana and not much for damage in the final calculation, though :sweat_smile:. Sorry for the rambling, please be gentle :sweat_smile:.

Correct. If the damage ratio was equal to or less than 4:1, then we would not have any control and thus too many variables. I will be retesting keghammer tomorrow to have more than one data point.

Also, when I said that damage dealt was much higher, I mean 4 damage received vs 50+ damage dealt, which would max the damage ratio twice over.

I just remembered I have a recording of a loss that I could check. Will do that and edit this with findings. Otherwise, can purposefully lose a fight tomorrow and see what kind of scores I get.

EDIT: Lost fight generated 239 points on 300 point fight after 7 turns using 4x troops of the day’s colors.

239/300 = .7967
Reason I’m not rounding up to .8 is because you can only get 239 with .795 to .798

Color bonus itself would put it at 2, and turn bonus at .43. Mana is close to if not 0 because gobtruffle loops. Same with damage but will confirm once more awake tomorrow.

So either we disregard color bonus and mana + damage = .796 - .43 = .366 (high based on first looks) or there’s a “loss penalty” that converts 2.43 into .796. It’s very close to 1/3 expected points so will double check turn count.

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Sorry, just back on this. It occurred to me that if one were to assume that Mana was in fact maxed out due to Empowered traits (as you said, unlikely), it would be akin to saying the bonuses for Mana Gen and Damage add up to .9, from your earlier equation:

Which I think can then be rejected, since it would leave that extra .4 that you mentioned unaccounted for :woozy_face::

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Basically, we now have an equation that can be verified or refuted based on others’ findings. Most of the situations I tested involve controls (no gen mana, max mana, max damage, etc). But if we really want to test it, we need weird cases, like max mana but 2:1 damage.

From a min-maxer point of view, we already knew how to get most points from one of the first posts: use day’s colors, win fast by overwhelming opponent and don’t lose a troop, earning yourself as close to 5.2 multiplier as possible, or 9800 daily points.

But from the formula point of view, only more data points will fully confirm or deny. Now to do my fights, including keghammer and possibly a loss, then come back with results.

EDIT 1 (4x Keghammer on yellow day):
3170 points, 1170 without defense bonus.

1170/250 - 1 = 3.68
Our color bonus was 48% so 4 × .48 = 1.92
3.68 - 1.92 = 1.76 (matching earlier Keghammer fight)

Damage dealt: 94 from keghammers
Damage received: 5 from skull damage
No mana generated (unless considering empowered, which would be 48)
Enemy mana: 12

Conclusions:

  • Damage bonus: max
  • Survival bonus: max (.4)
  • Color bonus 48% per troop (1.92)
  • Turns: 4 (50-4 × .01 = .46)
  • Mana bonus: max or 0

A) If mana bonus 0:
Damage bonus = 1.76 - .4 - 46 = .9 (as above)

B) If mana bonus is max:
Mana + Damage = .9
And from full formula we would have:
5.2 - 1 - 2 (color) - .5 (turn) - .4 (survival) = Mana + Damage
5.2 - 3.9 = .9
1.3 != .9

B is not possible so that leaves A as the only possibility. Thus, Mana bonus must max out at .4 and Damage must be .9. Q.E.D. :laughing:

EDIT 2 (Widow queen on yellow day):
Team used:

  • Mountain Crusher (Titan)
  • Widow Queen
  • Leprechaun
  • Emperinazara
    (No yellow troops so no color bonus)

Score: 803
803/275 - 1 = 1.92

Facts:
Turns: 12, so .38
Survival: .3 or .4 (guess we’re testing summons too)
Total enemy life + armor: 383 (384 from bloodthirst)
Total life + armor of sacrificed troop: 277
Total damage received: 39 [9 (3 troops hit by kraken trait), 1 (bloodthirst), 29 (skull)]

My mana:

  • 120 on troops
  • 228 gems exploded (includes values on troops but not wasted or unused)
  • 31 unused by troops
  • 12 from MC
  • 31 wasted
    Enemy mana: 26 (22 if discarding 4-matched brown that wasn’t used)

Just from mana on troops, 120/22 > 4. Even removing mana from MC, and incorrectly using the maximum enemy mana, 108/26 > 4. So mana bonus must be maxed (unless 4:1 ratio is not maximum)

A) At .3 survival:
Damage bonus = 1.92 - .4 - .38 - .3 = .84

Based on .225 damage multiplier, this means .84/.225 = 3.733 ratio of damage dealt vs received.

B) At .4 survival:
Damage bonus = 1.92 - .4 - .38 - .4 = .74

Based on .225 damage multiplier, this means .74/.225 = 3.289 ratio of damage dealt vs received.

I don’t see any way for the Widow Queen’s ally kill damage (277) to be included that would fit anywhere in that formula. Yet, if we disregard it entirely, damage should be maxed at .9 (closer to option A, which means any death subtracts from survival bonus, even if you summon something to take its place.)

On the other hand, maybe damage is maxed at .9 (as per fire bomb experiment in earlier post) but mana is the one that’s missing either .6 or 1.6.

Would be happy to hear anyone’s idea on what might be happening or what I might’ve overlooked.

NOTES: Both heroes has barriers that blocked some damage and Holy St. Astra had trait that blocked 25% of Widow Queen’s spell damage.

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Faced low guild today: first opponent had all troops < 20 total Armor+HP, so Dust Devil +3 Ironhawk meant 1298 points on single cast kill.

Next opponent had a couple of 20+ total Armor+HP, so the kill was with 2 Dust Devil +2 Ironhawk, 2 turns, opponent just did a normal 3-gem match

Score was 1369 as per screenshot: any idea why so incredibly far from the ~1430 max?
:thinking: :sweat_smile: :vulcan_salute:

Isnt the max 1560, not 1430? Since you took a couple turns, and the enemy collected mana, you wont be at max. @blindnighto can hopefully help with more precise info.

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