Anyone know how to calculate odds of getting tribute?

Calling all statistics majors!

So what I’d like to know is whether anyone knows a formula you could use to plug in the levels of your kingdoms (e.g., I have 11 10s and 9 7s at this point), and figure out your odds of 1 tribute, 2 tributes, and so on. I’m competent enough at math to use any formula you give me, but I never took statistics and I can’t find anything online that matches the type of calculation we have to do in this game.

This kind of fits in my obsession of how to best build resources over time, because what I’m basically getting at is whether it makes more sense to level many kingdoms one level at a time, or get one to level 10 before leveling another, leaving aside the issue of kingdom bonuses, of course. My instinct tells me it’s better to level multiple kingdoms to have better odds of multiple tributes (and thus keys and gems), but I’m not sure. Obviously if you just want money, you might as well cap out Khaziel, or level Khetar for souls, etc., but I’m really curious about the other side of the coin.

That’s right. Unless you want “at least N tributes”, not “as many tributes as possible”, in which case you should focus only on N kingdoms.

A good point, though even then you’ll never get “at least” anything since even with all kingdoms at level 10 and 3-star power level, you could get unlucky enough to get no tribute. Which makes the calculation issue even more important, because you have to balance odds of routinely getting N tributes versus higher odds of getting at least some tributes, but less chance of N tributes.

One thing is certain: if you level them all equally, you’ll have more chances of getting multiple tributes.

Note that you’ll have the chance of getting a tribute every hour, but never (I think) twice the tribute for the same kingdom at the same collect. So, if you take longer to collect, you’ll have more chances of getting more tributes, but you’ll waste chances of getting tribute for the same kingdom. So, if you wanna focus on levelling a few kingdoms only, make sure you check for tributes more often.

Well, for this problem, i think there is no “easy” formula giving you all the values.

You can have a binomial distribution for each % chance and number of kingdoms separately and then add those probabilities up.

I already made that some time ago, feel free to copy that spreadsheet:
Spreadsheet Tribute Chance

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I think you got something wrong there. The Tribute chance gets calculated every time you collect (which you can do only once per hour). Collecting after 24 hours gives you the same chance for tributes as collecting after the first hour. So collecting more often will allways increase the expected number of tributes (chance per collect*number of collects).

This somehow gets at least a little bit compensated by more accumulated gold means higher pvp-worth means more attacks vs you.

Are you 100% sure? It’s been consistent to me that I get more tributes when I take more time to check, but maybe just a series of coincidences.

Pretty sure that’s coincidence. I’ve had the same thing happen to me, but also had times where even checking every hour I’d get multiple tributes, but only 1 or 2 after waiting several hours.

Sweet! This is what I was looking for. :slightly_smiling:

Sure, that could happen as well, but the other one is considerably more often to me, that it makes me wonder if it’s just a coincidence. Maybe there’s even a more complicated method…

If I miss it for a long period of time, I ALWAYS get at least 3.

I actually collected some data on this matter, and ran some statistics and it’s highly likely that you were right!

If you’re not familiar with Pearson’s r, you can check here:

TL;DR: Since the value’s module is lower than 0.3, there’s no significant correlation between the two variables, namely the number of hours between each collect and the number of tributes obtained. The more I collected data for this, more the Pearson’s r dropped. (Note that, in my case, the longer I waited to collect, less tributes I got, but again that was just a coincidence).

Bottomline: For max tributes, collect them as often as you can!


Weird, it always seemed I got a slight boost if Id been gone most of the day. Not enough of a boost to stop collecting every hour though.

ALSO I JUST GOT 7 TRIBUTES!!! :open_mouth: I have 5 kingdoms at 3 stars (all level 10 ofc) Whats the odds of that!

Although tbf I did get 5 before, when there were probably 4 less kingdoms no kindom powered double chance and I averaged probably level 7 for them. Maybe that was rarer.