I’d like to just address some of your points that I came across.
I think the suggested moves are just fine. I really only use them to catch 4 or 5 matches that I have missed on the board. If the game suggests a 3 match, I will just ignore it and find a different match to make. This is because usually the suggested match is not in the mana color I would like to take.
Yes, sometimes the AI will get lucky and fill up quickly due to some nice cascades. Don’t get discouraged by this! There will be times where you will get those lucky drops and it will even out. Also, the more you play, the higher your mana masteries will become, allowing you to surge more often and fill faster than the AI.
I would completely ignore Maugrim Woods right now for quests and move on to another kingdom. Currently, the weekly troop comes from Maugrim Woods, so all troops in that kingdom have a 25% stat increase, with Wargare having another 25% boost on top of that (for 50% total stat boost). This would make it very hard for a new player to successfully fight against troops of that kingdom.
There is always a weekly bonus with some troops having 25% bonus and some having 50% bonus. It just so happens to fall on the one kingdom you are trying to work on this week… 
This can be controlled, since Banshee’s spell will always change Blue gems to Red. Keep banshee full and ready to cast until you see alignment of the red and blue gems that would give you a 4 or 5 match. If you don’t want to wait that long before casting, at least make sure that changing blue to red won’t give your opponent 4 or 5 matches to take.
All in all, I would say just stick with the game. Eventually you will get some good cards and make some fun teams to use. I have been enjoying this game for 8 months now, and I couldn’t be happier with a F2P game. On your title of “do I have to pay for this game?”, I would say it’s up to you. A lot of people do not pay and still are very good at this game. You may get things slightly slower than those who pay, but not by much. I personally have spent $30 on the game because I really enjoy it and I wanted to get VIP 3 for the free scouting.