# What are the odds of this **URL:** \ **Category:** Gameplay Chat (PC/Mobile)\ **Created:** [April 6, 2020, 1:26pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-this/62573 "2020-04-06T13:26:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![thelastdragon](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/thelastdragon/32/58365_2.png) [@thelastdragon](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/thelastdragon)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 1:26pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-this/62573/1 "2020-04-06T13:26:00Z")
i had 3 vault keys and each time i got an orb of chaos for cedrick and each time it was an orb of ascension. so that’s 3 blue orbs in a row from an orb of chaos what are the odds of that happening ---
**Author:** ![Denthegod](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/denthegod/32/69138_2.png) [@Denthegod](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Denthegod)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 1:54pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-this/62573/2 "2020-04-06T13:54:27Z")
Those are really nice pulls. For this weekend’s bounty I did not pull any ascension orbs. Rng is a mother. Then at like 3 in the morning I used some vault keys (3 I think) and I got a major orb of ascension. Great pulls for you though. I’m glad at least one of us is getting good orbs consistently. ---
**Author:** ![Rockwell](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@Rockwell](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Rockwell)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 9:59pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-this/62573/3 "2020-04-06T21:59:15Z")
After finally crafting Zuul’Goth, for the next 10 or 12 Orbs, I didn’t get a single Ascension! Ain’t RNG fun… ---
**Author:** ![Stix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/edb3f5/32.png) [@Stix](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Stix)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 6:21am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-this/62573/4 "2020-04-07T06:21:40Z")
It’s the odds of drawing an ascension orb to the power of 3. So if the chance of getting an ascension is 20% it’s 20%\*20%\*20%=0.8% or 8 in 1000 or 1 in 125. If someone can provide the correct odds the math is easy. ---
**Author:** ![igniteice](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/igniteice/32/67904_2.png) [@igniteice](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/igniteice)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 2:04pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-this/62573/5 "2020-04-07T14:04:48Z")
Getting a Minor Orb of Ascension from Cedric happens approximately 1.8% of the time. Interestingly, getting a Major Orb of Ascension happens approximately 1.4% of the time, not that far off! There’s ~22% chance to get Minor Orb and ~19% chance to get a Major Orb, then ~9% and ~8% for those orbs to be Ascension. ---
**Author:** ![Stix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/edb3f5/32.png) [@Stix](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Stix)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 2:32pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-this/62573/6 "2020-04-07T14:32:21Z")
My initial formula was incorrect depending on how you interpret the question. If the first orb is a given and you wonder what the odds are that this turns into 3 in a row, with ices odds it would be 0.0324% or 1 in 3086 If you interpret it as: what are the odds that my next 3 drops are minor ascension orbs (using ices odds) it becomes 0.0005832% or 1 in 171468. ---
**Author:** ![Denthegod](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/denthegod/32/69138_2.png) [@Denthegod](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Denthegod)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 3:33pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/what-are-the-odds-of-this/62573/7 "2020-04-07T15:33:41Z")
Gaaaaah probabilities!