# Upgrading troops with medals can feel so bad **URL:** \ **Category:** Gameplay Chat (PC/Mobile)\ **Created:** [April 1, 2022, 4:23pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/upgrading-troops-with-medals-can-feel-so-bad/74889 "2022-04-01T16:23:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![igniteice](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/igniteice/32/67904_2.png) [@igniteice](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/igniteice)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2022, 4:23pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/upgrading-troops-with-medals-can-feel-so-bad/74889/1 "2022-04-01T16:23:06Z")
I’m getting Ghulvania ready for power level 25, which includes upgrading 10 troops to Elite Level Silver. For some troops, I figure why stop at Silver, and just upgrade them to Gold. So I was upgrading Avina. She’s an Epic troop. To upgrade an Epic troop to Bronze, it requires a minimum of 3 Cedrics for 100%, or 1 Aranaea. To go from Bronze to Silver, it requires 2 Aranaea (50% each). To go from Silver to Gold, it requires 3 Aranaea (33.333…% each). But sometimes I like to gamble. So when going from Silver to Gold, I used 2 epic medals (in this case Medal of Seasons), and 1 Rare (Medal of Orpheus). That gave me a 77.78% chance. And it failed. So I did it again. And it failed again. Finally the third attempt succeeded. I just used 6 Medal of Seasons and 3 Medal of Orpheus. If I had known it would have failed twice, I would have just used 3 Medal of Seasons from the start. My god. But who expects a 77% chance to fail twice in a row?! ---
**Author:** ![sylverscale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f17d59/32.png) [@sylverscale](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/sylverscale)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2022, 4:49pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/upgrading-troops-with-medals-can-feel-so-bad/74889/2 "2022-04-01T16:49:43Z")
> [@igniteice](#): > > But who expects a 77% chance to fail twice in a row?! A 77% chance for the player is 23%. ---
**Author:** ![Dust\_Angel](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/dust_angel/32/35256_2.png) [@Dust\_Angel](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Dust_Angel)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2022, 5:13pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/upgrading-troops-with-medals-can-feel-so-bad/74889/3 "2022-04-01T17:13:03Z")
Why wouldn’t one expect to fail twice in a row? 77% chance to succeed means 23% chance to fail… 0.23\*0.23 for two successive times give about 0.05 - so 1 out of 20 should fail, right? If one is swimming in medals, then why not?, but I’m not yet at that point, so I find such failure chance too high and wouldn’t gamble. ---
**Author:** ![Cronus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/cronus/32/73674_2.png) [@Cronus](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Cronus)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2022, 5:16pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/upgrading-troops-with-medals-can-feel-so-bad/74889/4 "2022-04-01T17:16:54Z")
This is one of the reasons I decided not to gamble with medals anymore. Due to my farming practices, I also no longer need to (have a lot of all medals), but still… ---
**Author:** ![Helvellyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Helvellyn](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Helvellyn)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2022, 6:38pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/upgrading-troops-with-medals-can-feel-so-bad/74889/5 "2022-04-01T18:38:06Z")
I dont gamble either. The number of times that irongut fails to devour on consecutive 80%+ probability is staggering. I save myself the grief of inevitable disappointment. But lets be honest; higher tokens are way too scarce as it is, and the grind overall in explore is ludicrous. I know my kingdoms will soon hit a major roadblock where medalling is concerned and I am cool with that. For me its just not worth the tedium. ---
**Author:** ![igniteice](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/igniteice/32/67904_2.png) [@igniteice](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/igniteice)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2022, 7:56pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/upgrading-troops-with-medals-can-feel-so-bad/74889/6 "2022-04-01T19:56:16Z")
> [@Dust\_Angel](#): > > 77% chance to succeed means 23% chance to fail… 0.23\*0.23 for two successive times give about 0.05 - so 1 out of 20 should fail, right? The probabilities are independent of each other, so it’s much higher: 1 out of 4.3 will fail. The odds of the second one failing or succeeding aren’t dependent or influenced by the previous attempts. I think anyway 😜