# Unlucky or EK drop rate nerf (GaP)?
**URL:** https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934
**Category:** Gameplay Chat (PC/Mobile)
**Created:** [September 25, 2021, 11:35am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934 "2021-09-25T11:35:31Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@sylverscale](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/sylverscale)
#### Post date: [September 25, 2021, 11:35am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/1 "2021-09-25T11:35:31Z")
Maybe it’s just me… I ran 3 Gnome-a-Paloozas so far and got a single epic vault key.
I know it’s not a lot of GaPs but last time I would at least have gotten 10, most likely more, EKs from those 3 runs.
So, am I really unlucky or has anyone noticed the same thing?
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### Author:  [@Qoob](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Qoob)
#### Post date: [September 25, 2021, 12:09pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/2 "2021-09-25T12:09:16Z")
You were unlucky, but not particularly so. As you mention, your sample size isn’t large enough to draw any sort of conclusion based on your experience alone.
In addition, I think you have inflated expectations: 10 (let alone more) EVKs from three GaPs is already far beyond the norm, so it is not surprising that you did not get that many.
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### Author:  [@Madd\_Hurricane](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Madd_Hurricane)
#### Post date: [September 25, 2021, 12:49pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/3 "2021-09-25T12:49:59Z")
I’ve only done 4 GAPs myself thus far, but as far as I can tell, it doesn’t appear to be nerfed as I’ve gotten a total of 11 EVKs during that span. But definitely some streaky RNG as I got 0, 8, 0, 3 EVKs for each 15 minute GAP. So my advice is to keep at it, your luck will turn.
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### Author:  [@HounganAtLarge](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/HounganAtLarge)
#### Post date: [September 25, 2021, 12:50pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/4 "2021-09-25T12:50:58Z")
I’ve done 12 GAPs. 4 of them have gotten 0 Epic keys. That’s 892 gnomes and no Epic keys.
RNG has never, EVER, adjusted the other way across a negative that large.
And before you ask, the EVKs I did get from the other GAPs, 2 had 4 (expected), the rest were all under 10%.
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### Author:  [@Qoob](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Qoob)
#### Post date: [September 25, 2021, 1:44pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/5 "2021-09-25T13:44:20Z")
> [@HounganAtLarge](#):
>
> I’ve done 12 GAPs. 4 of them have gotten 0 Epic keys. That’s 892 gnomes and no Epic keys.
While technically true, your last sentence is misleading because the 4 GAPs in which you received no epic keys were presumably not all in a row, which would be a much rarer event than picking out four different GAPs in which you received no epic keys.
> [@HounganAtLarge](#):
>
> And before you ask, the EVKs I did get from the other GAPs, 2 had 4 (expected), the rest were all under 10%.
You certainly should not expect to get 4 EVKs/GAP on average.
Let us assume a 10% VK drop chance, which we know is an overestimate from your data. We are told that 10% of all VK drops will be EVK, so the EVK drop chance would be 1%. If you encounter 224 gnomes during a GAP, then you should find 2.24 EVKs on average—and this is already an overestimate.
We can go further. Given the results above, the distribution of the number N of vault keys in a GAP follows Poisson statistics with rate parameter λ = 2.24, so that P(N = 4) = exp(-λ) λ⁴/4! = 0.11, so it turns out that you were quite lucky to get 4 EVKs in 2 GAPs out of 12 total GAPs.
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### Author:  [@HounganAtLarge](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/HounganAtLarge)
#### Post date: [September 25, 2021, 2:06pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/6 "2021-09-25T14:06:45Z")
I run double GAPs. Sorry, I did’nt mention that on this thread, thought I did on another. 2 of those double gaps got me 4 keys (expected). 2 of those got me 0 keys (which is where i got the 892 gnome total from). The rest were all under 4 and all under 10%.
And, that means I did back to back GAPS with no epic keys. Twice.
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### Author:  [@Qoob](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Qoob)
#### Post date: [September 25, 2021, 2:33pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/7 "2021-09-25T14:33:25Z")
Thanks for clarifying, that does make more sense. I think it’s still more likely than not that it’s just bad luck over a small sample size, especially given the rarity of an EVK drop (\<1%), but I guess we’ll find out with more data.
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### Author:  [@sylverscale](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/sylverscale)
#### Post date: [September 25, 2021, 3:21pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/8 "2021-09-25T15:21:42Z")
I was probably just exceedingly lucky the last two vault events, then.
Good to know that others didn’t notice any change - that means I’ll hopefully get lucky again at some point. 😁
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### Author:  [@Skynet](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Skynet)
#### Post date: [September 25, 2021, 3:30pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/9 "2021-09-25T15:30:07Z")
My data so far (for this event):
- total number of gnomes: 8144
- keys: 567 =\> 6.96%
- epic keys: 76 =\> 0.93%
That being said, before running a 5-hour non-stop GaP, my epic key rate was closer to 0.7%, so take that part with a grain of salt. To me it feels like, key drop rate is 7% and epic key drop rate is 0.7% (which is 10% of the key drop, which is consistent with what we knew before).
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### Author:  [@AMT](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/AMT)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2021, 3:01am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/10 "2021-09-26T03:01:44Z")
This question may be a good chance to give the new mods the opportunity to answer honestly and directly, as opposed to what has been historically the case with ‘hands tied’/radio silence.
@NewMods: what are the VK and EVK drop rates during GaP?
🤞😌 🖖
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### Author:  [@Eika](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Eika)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2021, 4:10am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/11 "2021-09-26T04:10:44Z")
Just did 3 GAPS, not gonna spend my whole weekend playing as I got other things to do. But it’s Sunday so lets chill around playing some. 😉
13 -12 -14 VKs, 4 Epic VKs included.
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### Author:  [@Fleg](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Fleg)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2021, 4:51am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/12 "2021-09-26T04:51:17Z")
> [@AMT](#):
>
> @NewMods: what are the VK and EVK drop rates during GaP?
It would be nice to get an official response but don’t hold your breath. Fwiw from numerous data collection threads a gnome drops a vk 8% of the time and 10% of those will be evk.
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### Author:  [@Skynet](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Skynet)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2021, 4:55am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/13 "2021-09-26T04:55:42Z")
Oh wait, does this mean that I should actually count EVKs as vault key drops, too?
In this case, my final post reflects:
8.31% key drop (regular + epic)
0.98% epic key drop.
Which is closer to the values you are talking about. (0.98% is higher but the data points is so few for epic keys, I think that is totally possible).
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### Author:  [@Kezef](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Kezef)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2021, 1:53pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/14 "2021-09-26T13:53:07Z")
I did two (2) Gnome-a-Paloozas this weekend.
12 Vault Keys, 1 Epic Vault Key, ~165 gnomes killed in the first.
12 Vault Keys, 1 Epic Vault Key, ~160 gnomes killed in the second.
(For whatever it’s worth, the EVK was the very last drop in #2).
Just to provide a couple of additional data points for whoever is trying to prove whatever.
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### Author:  [@sylverscale](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/sylverscale)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2021, 6:08pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/15 "2021-09-26T18:08:32Z")
By now I played on my alt, 1 GaP, got 3 epic keys. That’s what I used to experience on my main the last two times, 3 to 5 epic keys per run.
But I also cashed in some keys because I don’t feel like only farming said keys and got a load of blue orbs which I definitely didn’t get the last two times.
Just RNG things… 😁
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### Author:  [@Eika](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Eika)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2021, 6:44pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/16 "2021-09-26T18:44:48Z")
I think I played for 5-6 hours this event, I managed to find enough verses to 4 GaPs. Was it worth the 6 hours of playing, I am not sure man.
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### Author:  [@Skynet](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Skynet)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2021, 8:31pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/18 "2021-09-26T20:31:54Z")
Update stats on my end if people are still interested:
- Total number of gnomes: 14112
- verses: 305
- keys (regular + epic): 1113, key drop rate: 8.92% (including epics)
- epic keys: 119, epic key drop rate: 0.86%
The current results suggest more along, key (regular + epic) drop rate =\> 9% and epic key drop rate: 0.9%. That being said, again, the data points is not enough to completely reject that it could be 8% and 0.8%.
Hope this helps,
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### Author:  [@Eika](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Eika)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2021, 8:42pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/19 "2021-09-26T20:42:59Z")
mother of God, u forgot to eat so u must go eat now.
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### Author:  [@Skynet](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Skynet)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2021, 8:44pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/20 "2021-09-26T20:44:53Z")
Believe me eating is not the problem (can still hunt gnomes while eating). Sleeping is (which I forgot a lot, but hopefully will make up during the week 🙂
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### Author:  [@Eika](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Eika)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2021, 8:48pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/unlucky-or-ek-drop-rate-nerf-gap/71934/21 "2021-09-26T20:48:39Z")
Just incredible datas, thanks for sharing!
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