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Token of Nisha Drop rate = 0?

I have farmed level 12 Explores enough to get 17 tokens of Anu in the last 2 weeks. Almost 2 medals. I have 0 tokens on Nisha. What is going on? This is on Xbox.

It’s a 100% drop rate for 35 bucks whenever you get a new mythic.

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Pretty pointless reply. Nothing todo with explore.

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Nysha tokens are fairly hard to get. For every 100 boss chests I open, I may get one or two. The only thing to do is keep on grinding!

Based on some data-mined Explore 12 drop rates that seem reasonable, assuming you received Anu tokens at around the average rate you received 17 Anu tokens out of around 400 tokens in total.

Assuming 400 tokens total:

  • On average you should have received around 4 Nysha tokens, but
  • The probability of receiving 0 Nysha tokens is still 2%.

So you’ve been quite unlucky, but not unexpectedly so. This experience is not unusual and causes many of us to appeal for the Nysha drop rate to increase.

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I also second (third) a request for an in increase in Nysha drop rates.

Isnt the drop rate for a Nysha token at 2% ? And 5% for Anu token?

I was using 1% and 4% but if you want to point me to some other analysis, I’d be interested.

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:vulcan_salute:

Yes, anu is posted as 5%. So not getting 1 Nisha is way against the law of averages. That makes me think the drop rate is 0 or something like .005.

I dont have any huge data about the token drop rate for Nysha and Anu unfortunately. But I think I read here it was 2% and 5% and also by what I received and other friends I know received, 2% seems to be more likely than 1%. But personally I dont farm the tokens enough to really start a study of the drop rate.

But Nysha is not at 5%. Probably 2%. It is the Anu token that is at 5% drop rate. Of course if you collected 400 tokens and received 0 Nysha, that shouldnt happen because of small odds. I will quickly check the odds and edit this post.

edit: so with 2% chance and 400 tokens collected, you have 0,0309% to not receive a nysha token. Thats 1 chance on 3’236. Thats extremely unlucky but still perfectly possible. I must admit I thought the odds would be smaller than that.
To put it differently, if 3’236 players were collecting 400 tokens each, only 1 player should be at 0 Nysha received and the 3’235 other players with 1 to x nysha collected.

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If I recall correctly, any given token has a 2% chance of being Nysha. Since you average 2.5 tokens from a level 12 run, that means a typical run yields 0.05 Nysha tokens. Since each token has a 5% chance of being Anu, you should get 2.5 times as many Anu tokens as Nysha tokens, long term.

Edit: I should add that I am sitting on 10 Nysha tokens and 45 Anu tokens, since the introduction of the currency. It looks like I am almost as unlucky as the OP.

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But about your 17 Anu tokens and 0 Nysha, with drop rates of 5% for Anu and 2% for Nysha, you should avergae 6,8 nysha tokens for 17 Anu.
so its a very unlucky streak but still possible due to all that still being not very huge numbers. Now if we add one zero and count odds with 170 Anu tokens, that would be 68 Nysha expected. So in such case, it would really be impossible to not collect a nysha token because of such microscopic odds for that to happen.
Your luck will turn. :blush:

Just 1 think to NOTE. I am not a VIP member. Could it be…

From the 9th September and including the last vault event (Vip8) and some numbers since.

3 of the tokens came from lazy explore 5 reward, the rest from 12
5 Anu tokens were used on gold medalling Wrath from already bronze.

100 Gaard Tokens - 303 to 403
122 Yasmine Tokens - 314 to 436
197 Orpheus Tokens - 557 to 754
60 Aranaea Tokens - 47 to 108 (less 1 on Wrath)
26 Anu Tokens - 52 to 78 (then 5 used on Wrath)
5 Nysha Tokens - 82 to 87

5 Nysha tokens in 510 tokens - circa 1:100 or 1%.

I got 2 Nysha tokens and 20 Anu tokens on the vault weekend and 149! Orpheus tokens.

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You went ahead and ran level 12 during the vault weekend vs level 1 to get them done faster?

When VK came out I ran explore 3.

Since the last few events I just run 12 and 5 on vault weekends.

Start on 12 until I get below 29 mythstones - then do 5 with Phoenicia until 80 or if I can squeeze another 5 in before back to 12. 5 gets me 4 goes usually, then 4 12s, rinse and repeat.

I’ve added Pharos Ra to a Phoenicia team now which hasn’t overly slowed me down and gives me 37 souls passively as opposed to 12.

Sometimes I pound 12 through and miss out on tokens the 1 time.

Vault keys are useless in comparison to tokens and souls for me. So I just view them as gravy. :grimacing:

Don’t explore much outside vault events but have this last two weeks started to.

Here’s another calculation - looking only at Explore 12.

Each individual token has a data-mined** 2% rate of being a Nysha. Since we know OP didn’t get one, we can assume that chance is expended elsewhere. Even at even odds of 5% for getting a token of Anu, 17 / 5% = 340, quite significantly away from 400, or 1 in 1000 odds of getting 0/340.
More likely is that the number of explores is significantly lower than 340, yielding odds such as

  • 0/300 ~ 1 in 429 chance of getting 0 tokens of Nysha
  • 0/250 ~ 1 in 156

Granted, it feels bad not getting the tokens after so much work.
But keep your head up, do about 13 more Explore 12 mythic battles for a fresh 51% (cumulative) chance to get a token of Nysha, roughly equal to a coin-flip.

** Note that tokens are assigned by the server, so it would take long term recording to record and study actual rates in any given period of time, which may not even be the same as any other period. It can be changed at the server end at will at any time. I believe data within the game file is not used at all, and most likely a vestige of a drop table like the ones shown in the chests screens.

You can only farm Nysha tokens on explore 12.