# This is why you should never expect something good from this game anymore

**URL:** <https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991>\
**Category:** Gameplay Chat (PC/Mobile)\
**Created:** [December 1, 2022, 9:55pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991 "2022-12-01T21:55:18Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 11\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![Vold](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/e56c9b/32.png) [@Vold](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Vold)\
**Post date:** [December 3, 2022, 1:53am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991/22 "2022-12-03T01:53:19Z")

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And here I am with just 1 dragon and not enough dragonite to even get a 2nd yet, all cause I refuse to spend 300 gems repeatedly to get any and my luck at getting a perfect run on the dungeon is abysmal.

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**Author:** ![Squi](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/squi/32/74157_2.png) [@Squi](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Squi)\
**Post date:** [December 3, 2022, 12:45pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991/23 "2022-12-03T12:45:15Z")

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![sar](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/uploads/gemsofwar/original/3X/1/4/141aa10e1c20c74ac458ba04e7e4b741b786baf0.jpeg)  
To prevent dragons from repeating when crafting, you just don’t need to craft the ones you already have.

 ![dra](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/uploads/gemsofwar/original/3X/0/e/0eaf90f3263f1f69e0d56983b95b28324b2376e8.jpeg)

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**Author:** ![ANGI](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@ANGI](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/ANGI)\
**Post date:** [December 4, 2022, 12:46am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991/24 "2022-12-04T00:46:33Z")

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sorry to correct you, but in your setup the second dragon doesn’t determine which color storm is happening:  
it is Essencia with lightstorm

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**Author:** ![ctenn2ls](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/ctenn2ls/32/69996_2.png) [@ctenn2ls](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/ctenn2ls)\
**Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 12:11am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991/26 "2022-12-05T00:11:17Z")

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Happy to be corrected when I’m wrong. I had made that assumption due to my experience switching the order of gem dragon troops, but that seems to be inaccurate.

I guess I’m not entirely sure how multiple storms interact with each other with multiple troops on the same team. I’ve also noticed if using this team in a Dungeon fight vs one of the gem dragons, the gem dragon on the enemy team’s storm is what runs from the beginning of the match and ‘is dominant’ for the remainder of the match until they are killed.

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**Author:** ![Kezef](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Kezef](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Kezef)\
**Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 1:41am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991/27 "2022-12-05T01:41:19Z")

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> [@anon6277487](#):
>
> It’s not luck, its programmed to prevent normal odds of perfect runs. I pick the same doors every day, law of averages would have given me more than 4 perfects. I want them to post the code to prove there is nothing going on behind the scenes. They already admitted to it once, just wait.

You can claim that it’s programmed this way until you’re blue in the face; it doesn’t make it true. Beyond your own paranoia on this issue, what evidence do you actually have to back this up? And what would be the benefit to the developers to behave in this fashion, especially assuming the likelihood that they’d get caught doing so at some point?

As for your “law of averages” claim? You don’t seem to understand how probability theory and random chance work. The “law of averages” might state that you should have more than 4 perfects, but that “law of averages” is also something that only should apply to truly massive data sets. The whole “if you chained an infinite number of monkeys in front of an infinite number of typewriters” sort of scenario.

You have 4 perfect runs in your sample size; there are probably players with 8 or 10 or 20 perfect runs in equivalently-sized samples. A 1-in-10 chance of a perfect run doesn’t mean you get one perfect run every ten days or that you’re guaranteed one unless the RNG is specifically coded to explicitly do so. At which point it isn’t random chance anymore.

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**Author:** ![TheIdleOne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c68b51/32.png) [@TheIdleOne](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/TheIdleOne)\
**Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 2:54am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991/29 "2022-12-05T02:54:44Z")

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> [@anon6277487](#):
>
> How is it that I pick the same door 1 each day and 4 out of the 7 days it’s a trap on the first pick? It’s a 1 in 6 chance each day

2 traps possible. I still hate the system though, so continue

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**Author:** ![Dust\_Angel](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/dust_angel/32/35256_2.png) [@Dust\_Angel](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Dust_Angel)\
**Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 5:04am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991/30 "2022-12-05T05:04:34Z")

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For the first turn storms get activated top to bottom, your team first and enemy team second so last applicable troop in this sequence will determine starting storm.

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**Author:** ![Dust\_Angel](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/dust_angel/32/35256_2.png) [@Dust\_Angel](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Dust_Angel)\
**Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 3:03pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991/31 "2022-12-05T15:03:31Z")

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![Capture](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/uploads/gemsofwar/original/3X/e/d/edc9a5857c27f493fbb8a4ccef82d99cf9032e76.jpeg)

66 days - 6 perfect runs; the same opening pattern every day (123456), so does it average to random enough?

Longest _first door trap_ streak - 4  
Longest _first door battle_ streak - 5  
Longest _first door non-trap_ streak - 15.

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**Author:** ![Voq](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/voq/32/54089_2.png) [@Voq](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Voq)\
**Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 6:23pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991/32 "2022-12-05T18:23:34Z")

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> [@anon6277487](#):
>
> It’s not luck, its programmed to prevent normal odds of perfect runs. I pick the same doors every day, **law of averages** would have given me more than 4 perfects. I want them to post the code to prove there is nothing going on behind the scenes. They already admitted to it once, just wait.

By that I assume you actually mean the law of large numbers, and not the misleadingly named “law” of averages, which is a belief and not a law. Wikipedia:

> [@](#):
>
> As invoked in everyday life, the “law” usually reflects wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that an unnatural short-term “balance” must occur.

How many dungeon runs do you have recorded to make that conclusion? I don’t doubt that there could be another mistake in their code, but we frequently see people here making claims based on limited data. Look at every Vault Weekend.

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**Author:** ![Draegor](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/draegor/32/70763_2.png) [@Draegor](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Draegor)\
**Post date:** [December 6, 2022, 9:50pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991/33 "2022-12-06T21:50:08Z")

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No offense, but it’s called rng. I suggest waiting until January and saving up some Dragonite until then.

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**Author:** ![Moriad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a87d85/32.png) [@Moriad](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Moriad)\
**Post date:** [December 15, 2022, 6:21am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991/34 "2022-12-15T06:21:18Z")

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I’ve had one perfect run. Zero since the Dungeon was recoded to be officially “random”.

I did spend enough gems to get one dragon. But I’m not willing to play the dupes game either. I mean, with luck like mine, if I’d bought Dragonite every day, I’d probably still only have one dragon.

I only need the dragons for kingdom power upgrades, and getting those is basically a lifetime achievement anyway, so I figure there’s absolutely no rush.

[Previous page](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/this-is-why-you-should-never-expect-something-good-from-this-game-anymore/77991.md?page=1)
