I have not seen any changes in the drops from Vaults that seem statistically off, and I have my personal Vault rewards in a spreadsheet from my last 230 vault runs. A few highlights, for what it’s worth:
- I haven’t had Cedric’s 15 Event Keys reward in 58 battles now. Based on the 230 vault runs though, the drop rate for it is only 4.3%, but that gets lower and lower the more runs without it dropping I do. Oddly enough, in the 18 battles before those 58, it dropped 3 times. However, statistically weird things like that are bound to happen. For instance, you might think it’s odd to go 58 battles without seeing it. But on the flip side, I also had his 15 event keys drop back to back once.
- Similarly, Cedric’s gem rewards (100 or 250 gems) is pretty rare at 5.7%. I went 62 battles once without seeing it, yet it dropped 3 times in the 23 battles before that. But again, unless I had tens of thousands of runs to look at, these anomalies are meaningless for making conclusions about changes to the drop chances.
It’s like playing poker and seeing someone get 4 aces and declaring that the deck wasn’t shuffled. Well, we just put more emphasis on seeing 4 aces than we do other things and we ignore the times that we didn’t see that.
It’s very easy with statistics to think something is “wrong” because we don’t see what we expect, when in reality, that’s the thing with drops. You could open 1000 gem keys and get 3 mythics, or you could open 10k gem keys and get none.