# (!) Spoiler Alert (!) -- \[Any Details Provided are Subject to Change\] (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Spoilers\ **Created:** [November 13, 2015, 3:16am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280 "2015-11-13T03:16:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 157
**Author:** ![Rasper](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/rasper/32/2363_2.png) [@Rasper](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Rasper)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 12:31am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3157 "2017-05-28T00:31:08Z")
> [@brandonwiker](#): > > Yes, thank you. This mythic is looking like a mighty good support troop. Really hope I won’t be disappointed. Depending on her reception, I plan on burning through 2k glory keys, 250 gem keys, 12k gems, and 4500 seals to try and grab 2 copies. Assuming your 12k gems are spent on gem keys, I calculate a 83% chance at getting at least 1 mythic If they are VIP keys, I calculate a 96% chance of at least 1 mythic. For the curious: 2k glory keys = 18.1% 250 gem keys = 22.2% 1200 gem keys = 70% or 266 vip keys = 93% 4500 seals = 10.6% (assuming you still get guardians, otherwise this goes up to 20.1%) ---
**Author:** ![Buggyleclown](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/buggyleclown/32/13723_2.png) [@Buggyleclown](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Buggyleclown)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:21am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3158 "2017-05-28T02:21:34Z")
My bad, i was thinking there is someone behind, but looking again, no one there… Time to buy new glasses… Sorry 😓 ---
**Author:** ![Crow](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/crow/32/44074_2.png) [@Crow](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Crow)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 4:23am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3159 "2017-05-28T04:23:15Z")
Well im not so fond on the art, is silly for a Mithyc. Im the same regard they dont have to be covered in fire hehe. ---
**Author:** ![Draprion](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/draprion/32/8238_2.png) [@Draprion](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Draprion)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 5:16am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3160 "2017-05-28T05:16:17Z")
There’s a hint of my little pony about her. Good for those that like that sort of thing I suppose ---
**Author:** ![Draprion](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/draprion/32/8238_2.png) [@Draprion](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Draprion)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 5:24am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3161 "2017-05-28T05:24:31Z")
Can I check the maths on this? If the guild keys no longer yield guardians, shouldn’t the % be exactly double than if they do? Also do you know if guild keys also give the 10x extra chance for mythics that gem keys reportedly do? ---
**Author:** ![Jainus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/jainus/32/34949_2.png) [@Jainus](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Jainus)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 6:40am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3162 "2017-05-28T06:40:35Z")
> [@Draprion](#): > > Can I check the maths on this? If the guild keys no longer yield guardians, shouldn’t the % be exactly double than if they do? IIRC, the chance on _each_ key is doubled if you no longer get guardians. The probabilities @rasper has computed are for multiple keys, so the effect is compounded and not linear. ---
**Author:** ![Legion\_47](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/legion_47/32/28698_2.png) [@Legion\_47](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Legion_47)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 11:50am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3163 "2017-05-28T11:50:57Z")
ehi, mate, can u plz give me the link to the topic where there’s the link to the google sheet with previous of cards? ty very much ---
**Author:** ![GemsCollector](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b4bc9f/32.png) [@GemsCollector](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/GemsCollector)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 12:59pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3164 "2017-05-28T12:59:46Z")
If you mean the same tool I have in mind it’s not a google sheet. Check if that’s what you are after: > [@Troop Mockup Creator](http://community.gemsofwar.com/t/troop-mockup-creator/22496): > > With the rise of troop mockups in recent months, with a particular nod to the amazing troop previews Yonizaf does for those who follow spoilers, I wanted to try and make something that would help more people be able to create troop mockups. Whether it be to help get their new troop idea across or just for laughs, I wanted to make something anyone could use with little to no knowledge of image editing. I present to you… ##The Troop Mockup Creator! (v0.5) (I might need to work on my naming sense… ---
**Author:** ![yonizaf](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/yonizaf/32/1435_2.png) [@yonizaf](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/yonizaf)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 1:49pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3165 "2017-05-28T13:49:06Z")
Did you want one of these? [actreal’s Arcane Schedule Thread](http://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoilers-arcane-traitstones-in-glory-packs-apr-jun-2017/21957) [Rasper’s Event Spreadsheet](http://tinyurl.com/GoWEvents) ---
**Author:** ![The\_Unforgiven](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/the_unforgiven/32/24199_2.png) [@The\_Unforgiven](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/The_Unforgiven)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 1:52pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3166 "2017-05-28T13:52:47Z")
Are either of you interested in opening a fresh spoiler thread and keeping all the summary info in the OP? ---
**Author:** ![Rasper](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/rasper/32/2363_2.png) [@Rasper](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Rasper)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 3:48pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3167 "2017-05-28T15:48:24Z")
4500 seals = 225 keys Chance of mythic in 1 key = 0.001 (1 in 1000) Chance of non-mythic in 1 key = 1 - 0.001 = 0.999 Chance of all non-mythic in n keys = 0.999^n Chance at least 1 mythic in n keys = 1 - 0.999^n If guardians are present, you get 112 non-guardians, so n = 112 1 - 0.999^112 = 1 - 0.8939 = 0.1061 = 10.6% If guardians are not present, n = 225 1 - 0.999^225 = 1 - 0.7984 = 0.2016 = 20.2% ---
**Author:** ![ZooKeeper](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/zookeeper/32/30875_2.png) [@ZooKeeper](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/ZooKeeper)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 4:01pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3168 "2017-05-28T16:01:44Z")
If only RNG works like that math. My best pull from guild keys so far is BD and Bunni Nog. ---
**Author:** ![Draprion](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/draprion/32/8238_2.png) [@Draprion](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Draprion)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 4:09pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3169 "2017-05-28T16:09:59Z")
ok thanks, that’s way over my head haha. i just thought the chance would be a simple double if guardians no longer dropped. ---
**Author:** ![Zuboki](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/zuboki/32/28558_2.png) [@Zuboki](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Zuboki)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 4:45pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3170 "2017-05-28T16:45:44Z")
Think about it this way- If you had a 50% chance to get what you wanted with 1 chest, would you have a 100% chance to get it in 2 chests? ---
**Author:** ![Rasper](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/rasper/32/2363_2.png) [@Rasper](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Rasper)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 5:15pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3171 "2017-05-28T17:15:53Z")
One example I like about probability: Imagine flipping a coin and getting heads 26 times in a row. The odds are just staggeringly small. But if everyone in the US tried it one, there is a 99.3% chance someone would get it. ---
**Author:** ![Lyya](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/lyya/32/3650_2.png) [@Lyya](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Lyya)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 5:56pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3172 "2017-05-28T17:56:48Z")
Also known as: > **[Law of large numbers](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers)** > > In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value and tends to become closer to the expected value as more trials are performed. > The LLN is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may los... ---
**Author:** ![GemsCollector](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b4bc9f/32.png) [@GemsCollector](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/GemsCollector)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 7:25pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3173 "2017-05-28T19:25:57Z")
I think the Law of large numbers is most prominently visible when it comes to all kinds of lotteries. There is a really tiny chance you’ll get the jackpot (probably 1 in dozens of millions) yet _someone_ gets it. ---
**Author:** ![Shimrra](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/shimrra/32/87_2.png) [@Shimrra](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Shimrra)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 11:51pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3174 "2017-05-28T23:51:56Z")
> [@The\_Unforgiven](#): > > Are either of you interested in opening a fresh spoiler thread and keeping all the summary info in the OP? Valid question here to those of you doing the datamining… “Spoiler Alert: Under New Management” I don’t know. I legitimately forgot the thread was started by someone else lol. ---
**Author:** ![Rasper](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/rasper/32/2363_2.png) [@Rasper](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Rasper)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 11:56pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3175 "2017-05-28T23:56:59Z")
I’d suggest waiting until the next big data dump. We’ve had a few new details about mythics and such, but nothing about events after July 24. I’d wager either tonight or next week they will add the August and September event schedule to the game data. At that point it would be worth starting fresh again. ---
**Author:** ![Shimrra](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/shimrra/32/87_2.png) [@Shimrra](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Shimrra)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 11:59pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280/3176 "2017-05-28T23:59:27Z")
Fair enough. [Previous page](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280.md?page=156) [Next page](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/spoiler-alert-any-details-provided-are-subject-to-change-part-1/1280.md?page=158)