# Probability Explained (Salty Style With Weird Examples)

**URL:** <https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/probability-explained-salty-style-with-weird-examples/34950>\
**Category:** Official News\
**Created:** [January 15, 2018, 6:24am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/probability-explained-salty-style-with-weird-examples/34950 "2018-01-15T06:24:41Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 61

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**Author:** ![Mithran](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/mithran/32/18064_2.png) [@Mithran](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Mithran)\
**Post date:** [January 16, 2018, 4:28am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/probability-explained-salty-style-with-weird-examples/34950/61 "2018-01-16T04:28:24Z")

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> [@aurvandil](#):
>
> It is however possible to run hypothesis test for other events (e.g. TDS prob to resurrect, **Fizzbang prob to explode** , Kraken prob to devour) whre the p is known.

Even just cursory tests show that Fizzbang is not actually 50/50 explode versus buff. Not for me, not for the AI, never has been. Explode I’d put at at least 2/3, possibly even 3/4 of the time, but I haven’t gathered enough hard data to confirm. The description is just not clear on this, and most people _assume_ since the text says explode _OR_ buff random stat that each one has equal chance to happen. Spooky Imp is an example of where they have done this before with another _OR_ spell, as the description states it will transform a random enemy _OR_ give all allies magic, but is actually 2/3 magic buff and 1/3 transform.

(source: [Knight Time - #40 by Sirrian](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/knight-time/14241/40))

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