# Possible Dungeon Probability Calculation

**URL:** <https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/possible-dungeon-probability-calculation/76873>\
**Category:** Gameplay Chat (PC/Mobile)\
**Created:** [September 6, 2022, 3:17pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/possible-dungeon-probability-calculation/76873 "2022-09-06T15:17:24Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 2\
**Page:** 1

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Darkscythe](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/darkscythe/32/76402_2.png) [@Darkscythe](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Darkscythe)\
**Post date:** [September 6, 2022, 3:17pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/possible-dungeon-probability-calculation/76873/1 "2022-09-06T15:17:24Z")

</div>

I feel like we could work out the math of this with a variation of Bayes’ Theorem, but I’m terrible at probability formulas.

> **[Bayes' theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem)**
>
> In probability theory and statistics, Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule), named after Thomas Bayes, describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. For example, if the risk of developing health problems is known to increase with age, Bayes' theorem allows the risk to an individual of a known age to be assessed more accurately (by conditioning it on their age) than simply assuming that the individual is typi On...

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Malcolm54](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/malcolm54/32/83116_2.png) [@Malcolm54](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Malcolm54)\
**Post date:** [September 6, 2022, 9:25pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/possible-dungeon-probability-calculation/76873/5 "2022-09-06T21:25:55Z")

</div>

The Bayes’ Theorem is an excellent tool for chance as well.  
This is a very good idea. Main problem though come to the glitches in the AI everyday.  
With 6 doors that move around so much, with glitches,  
the chance can be very low or even very high to win. What 505 games has done is genius.  
Using their AI, the chance for most players will be difficult or never in winning  
and few in winning all the time. They are hoping that players will be willing  
to use the purchases instead. In 1990, Marilyn Mach von Savant used the game show,  
the Monty Hall show in using the theorem.  
Problem is the dungeon is not quite exactly the Monty Hall show.  
If you are interested lookup Marilyn Mach von Savant with the Monty Hall problem.  
Otherwise, would love to use it to win if the AI would be 100% more predictable.