# Odds for Dragon Eggs (if you need your last missing dragon) **URL:** \ **Category:** Gameplay Chat (PC/Mobile)\ **Created:** [September 4, 2023, 9:22am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190 "2023-09-04T09:22:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 7
**Author:** ![Dank](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/dank/32/74470_2.png) [@Dank](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Dank)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2023, 5:53pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/7 "2023-09-04T17:53:29Z")
> [@Kugare](#): > > but to keep it simple: the odds for not hitting a 6 with 6 throws are 33,49% as example and i see no problem to replace the dice scenario with dragons? Yes, the dragons and dice are equivalent. The odds for not hitting a 6 with 6 throws are 33.49%, _ **but only if you have not rolled the dice yet** _. If you have rolled some of the dice already and not got a 6, then the chance of still not having a 6 after the 6th throw is increased. You should ignore the previous rolls and use the table above with the number of remaining rolls. So if you are doing 6 rolls, and have not got 6 with the first 4 rolls, you have two rolls remaining and the chance of not hitting a 6 is now 69.44%. If you look at Stratelier’s second graph (above), you’ll see it’s about a one-third chance to have five dragons after 15 eggs, about two-thirds to have all six, and a small chance to have four or fewer. I like JamesDurning’s approach [here](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/more-dragon-egg-issues/78755/18). His post includes precise probabilities, and a description of how the numbers are derived. That gives the probability of exactly 5 distinct dragons after 15 eggs as 32.27% and having all 6 as 64.42%. More than 3% of players still have only four of the dragons after 15 eggs. You have not been lucky, but your luck is not extreme. Random dragons from eggs is unfun and unfair. I agree that the system needs some reworking (capping at 4 copies, or an ability to craft specific dragons for a larger amount of dragonite). --- _[View the full topic](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190)._