# Odds for Dragon Eggs (if you need your last missing dragon) **URL:** \ **Category:** Gameplay Chat (PC/Mobile)\ **Created:** [September 4, 2023, 9:22am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190 "2023-09-04T09:22:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Kugare](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/kugare/32/76881_2.png) [@Kugare](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Kugare)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2023, 9:22am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/1 "2023-09-04T09:22:16Z")
I’m one of the unlucky players who already crafted 15 eggs and still needs a single dragon. My collection: 4x Amethialas, 2x Garnetaerlin, 2x Rubirath, 5x Sapphirax and x2 Topasarth. You may are in the same postion and ask yourself: How BAD is my luck to not pull the last missing dragon, even with the initial 1/6 chance? This list shows you how likely it is to not pull your last needed dragon. As you can see with my last crafting attempt (number 15) the chance was 6,49% to still miss out this card. Unlucky, but unfortunately in a realistic room. I just wish they would filter out dragons after 4 copys, but anyway: How many eggs you had to open for a full set or how many do you opened at the moment without having a full set? Comment below! 😄 opened eggs / chance to not pull the last missing card 1 | 83,33% 2 | 69,44% 3 | 57,87% 4 | 48,23% 5 | 40,19% 6 | 33,49% 7 | 27,91% 8 | 23,26% 9 | 19,38% 10 | 16,15% 11 | 13,46% 12 | 11,22% 13 | 9,35% 14 | 7,79% 15 | 6,49% 16 | 5,41% 17 | 4,51% 18 | 3,76% 19 | 3,13% 20 | 2,61% 21 | 2,17% 22 | 1,81% 23 | 1,51% 24 | 1,26% 25 | 1,05% 26 | 0,87% 27 | 0,73% 28 | 0,61% 29 | 0,51% 30 | 0,42% ---
**Author:** ![DAeron](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/daeron/32/89036_2.png) [@DAeron](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/DAeron)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2023, 9:38am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/2 "2023-09-04T09:38:35Z")
> [@Gem Dragon Community Drop Rates](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/gem-dragon-community-drop-rates/77297): > > With the amount of drop rate inconsistencies we as a community have seen over the years, most recently being the Dungeon fiasco, we have begun to question a lot of supposedly “random” parts of the game. @awryan made a thread ([More Fraud from Gems of War](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/more-fraud-from-gems-of-war/77265)) discussing whether or not Gem Dragon drops are truly random. This thread will serve as a collection of community data to test the theory. Please post your Gem Dragon data here, whether that be screenshots of how many of each dragon you have, c… ---
**Author:** ![Dank](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/dank/32/74470_2.png) [@Dank](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Dank)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2023, 10:06am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/3 "2023-09-04T10:06:02Z")
> [@Kugare](#): > > As you can see with my last crafting attempt (number 15) the chance was 6,49% to still miss out this card. If you had already used 14 eggs and pulled 5 different dragons, then the chance of a 15th egg not pulling the missing dragon is 83.33%. If after your 14 eggs you had another 15 eggs to open, then your chance of missing with all 15 would be 6.49%. It does not matter how many eggs have already been opened. If you still have one dragon to get, the chance of missing it with the next egg is 83.33%, missing it with the next two eggs is 69.44%, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Kugare](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/kugare/32/76881_2.png) [@Kugare](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Kugare)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2023, 10:32am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/4 "2023-09-04T10:32:50Z")
In my scenario i gave all dragons a number from 1 to 6, so it’s like throwing a dice and not hitting number 6 (the specific number doesn’t matter, it’s just the number/dragon that never ended as a result) - but to keep it simple: the odds for not hitting a 6 with 6 throws are 33,49% as example and i see no problem to replace the dice scenario with dragons? ---
**Author:** ![Stratelier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/977dab/32.png) [@Stratelier](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Stratelier)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2023, 3:26pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/5 "2023-09-04T15:26:01Z")
Just going to note that the probabilities you stated are the CUMULATIVE values for the stated outcome – not the probability for that attempt _individually_ (which is always X / 6, X being the number of unowned dragons) I’ve plotted this data myself previously, here is your probability of owning X dragons after N eggs, charted in various ways: Stacked plot (all outcomes sum to 100%): > [@How many Dragonite eggs to open to get 6 basic troops?](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/how-many-dragonite-eggs-to-open-to-get-6-basic-troops/80576/9): > > ![gemsof-dragons-vs-eggs](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/uploads/gemsofwar/original/3X/0/7/072e0aa5235c4cdb9f5b2ef8a4fd109d654b05c3.png) Non-stacked plot (easier to compare each outcome): > [@How many Dragonite eggs to open to get 6 basic troops?](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/how-many-dragonite-eggs-to-open-to-get-6-basic-troops/80576/9): > > ![gemsof-dragons-vs-eggs-scatter](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/uploads/gemsofwar/original/3X/b/c/bc86e3ff8c015c2318be1d2d2c807391c5183493.png) Y-logarithmic plot (each outcome trends towards an exponential decay of \*(X/6): > [@How many Dragonite eggs to open to get 6 basic troops?](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/how-many-dragonite-eggs-to-open-to-get-6-basic-troops/80576/9): > > ![gemsof-dragons-vs-eggs-log](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/uploads/gemsofwar/original/3X/d/a/daaf7662789234de0a0c2856decb5e7a3ba55251.png) ---
**Author:** ![Kugare](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/kugare/32/76881_2.png) [@Kugare](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Kugare)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2023, 5:37pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/6 "2023-09-04T17:37:25Z")
> [@Stratelier](#): > > Just going to note that the probabilities you stated are the CUMULATIVE values for the stated outcome Sure, after pulling other dragons over and over i care more how likely this outcome is. I know in the end it’s still the same 1/6 chance for the last dragon every time, but i need something that gives me (false) hope in such frustrating times. 😜 Thank you very much for sharing your nice graphis. I have to admit it gives your a even better idea/look at things. Fingers crossed egg number 16 - 20 gives me more luck. ---
**Author:** ![Dank](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/dank/32/74470_2.png) [@Dank](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Dank)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2023, 5:53pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/7 "2023-09-04T17:53:29Z")
> [@Kugare](#): > > but to keep it simple: the odds for not hitting a 6 with 6 throws are 33,49% as example and i see no problem to replace the dice scenario with dragons? Yes, the dragons and dice are equivalent. The odds for not hitting a 6 with 6 throws are 33.49%, _ **but only if you have not rolled the dice yet** _. If you have rolled some of the dice already and not got a 6, then the chance of still not having a 6 after the 6th throw is increased. You should ignore the previous rolls and use the table above with the number of remaining rolls. So if you are doing 6 rolls, and have not got 6 with the first 4 rolls, you have two rolls remaining and the chance of not hitting a 6 is now 69.44%. If you look at Stratelier’s second graph (above), you’ll see it’s about a one-third chance to have five dragons after 15 eggs, about two-thirds to have all six, and a small chance to have four or fewer. I like JamesDurning’s approach [here](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/more-dragon-egg-issues/78755/18). His post includes precise probabilities, and a description of how the numbers are derived. That gives the probability of exactly 5 distinct dragons after 15 eggs as 32.27% and having all 6 as 64.42%. More than 3% of players still have only four of the dragons after 15 eggs. You have not been lucky, but your luck is not extreme. Random dragons from eggs is unfun and unfair. I agree that the system needs some reworking (capping at 4 copies, or an ability to craft specific dragons for a larger amount of dragonite). ---
**Author:** ![Stratelier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/977dab/32.png) [@Stratelier](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Stratelier)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2023, 1:02am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/8 "2023-09-05T01:02:46Z")
> [@Dank](#): > > If you look at Stratelier’s second graph (above), you’ll see it’s about a one-third chance to have five dragons after 15 eggs, about two-thirds to have all six, and a small chance to have four or fewer. There’s a well-known phenomenon where an expected value of 100% (aka. N independent rolls of a 1/N probability) actually converges to a roughly 1/e chance (~37%) of a complete losing streak across all attempts. ---
**Author:** ![Lucien](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/lucien/32/75325_2.png) [@Lucien](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Lucien)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2023, 5:57pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/9 "2023-09-05T17:57:25Z")
27 eggs here ---
**Author:** ![JamesDurning](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e8c25b/32.png) [@JamesDurning](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/JamesDurning)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 3:38pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/10 "2023-09-07T15:38:49Z")
> **Probabilities starting at 4 dragons** > > | | 4 | 5 | 6 | > | --- | --- | --- | --- | > | 1 | 0.6666666667 | 0.333333 | 0 | > | 2 | 0.444444 | 0.500000 | 0.055556 | > | 3 | 0.296296 | 0.564815 | 0.138889 | > | 4 | 0.197531 | 0.569444 | 0.233025 | > | 5 | 0.131687 | 0.540381 | 0.327932 | > | 6 | 0.087791 | 0.494213 | 0.417996 | > | 7 | 0.058528 | 0.441108 | 0.500364 | > | 8 | 0.039018 | 0.387099 | 0.573882 | > | 9 | 0.026012 | 0.335589 | 0.638399 | > | 10 | 0.017342 | 0.288328 | 0.694330 | > | 11 | 0.011561 | 0.246054 | 0.742385 | > | 12 | 0.007707 | 0.208899 | 0.783394 | > | 13 | 0.005138 | 0.176651 | 0.818210 | > | 14 | 0.003425 | 0.148922 | 0.847652 | > | 15 | 0.002284 | 0.125244 | 0.872473 | > | 16 | 0.001522 | 0.105131 | 0.893347 | > | 17 | 0.001015 | 0.088117 | 0.910868 | > | 18 | 0.000677 | 0.073769 | 0.925555 | > | 19 | 0.000451 | 0.061700 | 0.937849 | > | 20 | 0.000301 | 0.051567 | 0.948133 | > | 21 | 0.000200 | 0.043072 | 0.956727 | > | 22 | 0.000134 | 0.035961 | 0.963906 | > | 23 | 0.000089 | 0.030012 | 0.969899 | > | 24 | 0.000059 | 0.025039 | 0.974901 | > | 25 | 0.000040 | 0.020886 | 0.979074 | > | 26 | 0.000026 | 0.017418 | 0.982555 | > | 27 | 0.000018 | 0.014524 | 0.985458 | > | 28 | 0.000012 | 0.012109 | 0.987879 | > | 29 | 0.000008 | 0.010095 | 0.989897 | > | 30 | 0.000005 | 0.008415 | 0.991580 | If you have 4 dragons: in the next 7 eggs you have about a 50/50 chance of having all 6. There’s still a \>1% chance that it’ll take you more than 29 eggs to get the last 2. Pray to RNGesus! ---
**Author:** ![Ahayzo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/aeb1de/32.png) [@Ahayzo](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Ahayzo)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 5:25pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/11 "2023-09-07T17:25:29Z")
What are the odds of getting 4 dragons in your first 4 eggs, and still only have 4 dragons after opening 10 eggs total? Asking for a friend. ---
**Author:** ![Stratelier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/977dab/32.png) [@Stratelier](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Stratelier)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 8:59pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/12 "2023-09-07T20:59:04Z")
1 - About 27.8% for getting 4 unique dragons from 4 eggs. 2 - After that, (4/6) ^ 6 or 8.8% for a streak of 6 dupes. Otherwise, there would be a 20.3% chance of getting _(in any order)_ 4 dragons from 10 eggs. (What colors specifically do you have? Asking for a spreadsheet…) ---
**Author:** ![Ahayzo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/aeb1de/32.png) [@Ahayzo](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Ahayzo)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2023, 5:19am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/13 "2023-09-08T05:19:47Z")
Cool cool I’m just gonna cry now. For my friend. I have 1x Emeraldrin (Green) 3x Garnetaerlin (Brown) 2x Rubirath (Red) 7x Sapphirax (Blue) 2x Topasarth (Yellow) Update 9/14/23: Another egg, another Garnetaerlin. Very good system. Very cool. Update 10/1/23: Sapphirax #7, do I win a prize when I have a full useless set of four? Update 11/1/23: Rubirath #2 Update 12/30/23: It took nearly 18 months and 14 eggs, but we finally have 5 of the 6 dragons. Never forget the devs’ unbelievably moronic comment from their announcement video for the new cosmic eggs, that they are totally delusional and think people actually enjoyed these first ones. Update 1/14/23: Another Topasarth. Just got my first two weeks ago after 14 eggs, and now they’re taunting me with a dupe instead of the last one! ---
**Author:** ![Rockwell](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@Rockwell](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Rockwell)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2023, 9:21am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/14 "2023-09-08T09:21:53Z")
Yay! Finally got my last dragon…! ---
**Author:** ![Lucien](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/lucien/32/75325_2.png) [@Lucien](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Lucien)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2023, 9:37am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/odds-for-dragon-eggs-if-you-need-your-last-missing-dragon/81190/15 "2023-09-08T09:37:37Z")
NICE ONE CONGRATS!!! An error occurred: Body seems unclear, is it a complete sentence? happy now 😑