# Math question here = never been good at figuring out odds **URL:** \ **Category:** Gameplay Chat (PC/Mobile)\ **Created:** [March 11, 2017, 9:45pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/math-question-here-never-been-good-at-figuring-out-odds/21156 "2017-03-11T21:45:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 5\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Taisiakat](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/taisiakat/32/75810_2.png) [@Taisiakat](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Taisiakat)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2017, 9:45pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/math-question-here-never-been-good-at-figuring-out-odds/21156/1 "2017-03-11T21:45:27Z")
What are the odds of 6 devours in one game - with the 40% chance the devour firing off? SIX… (I was doing dragon event, played with against a Kraken… lost) ---
**Author:** ![XLS78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/b2d939/32.png) [@XLS78](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/XLS78)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2017, 9:47pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/math-question-here-never-been-good-at-figuring-out-odds/21156/2 "2017-03-11T21:47:33Z")
Assuming that the Kraken devoured every time it fired (so six fires, six hits), about 1 in 250. ---
**Author:** ![Taisiakat](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/taisiakat/32/75810_2.png) [@Taisiakat](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Taisiakat)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2017, 10:01pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/math-question-here-never-been-good-at-figuring-out-odds/21156/3 "2017-03-11T22:01:58Z")
What’s the math since that is my question. I don’t get how you get 1 in 250 ---
**Author:** ![Lun](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Lun](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Lun)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2017, 10:19pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/math-question-here-never-been-good-at-figuring-out-odds/21156/4 "2017-03-11T22:19:21Z")
40% = 0.4 6 times: 0.4^6 = 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 = 0.004096 = 1/244 (about 1/250) Edit: And to go from 0.004096 to 1/244, simply press the “1/x” button on a calculator, or do it manually (1 / 0.004096 = 244) ---
**Author:** ![Rasper](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/rasper/32/2363_2.png) [@Rasper](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Rasper)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2017, 10:47pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/math-question-here-never-been-good-at-figuring-out-odds/21156/5 "2017-03-11T22:47:34Z")
In general ask two questions: 1. What is the chance of each individual event? 2. How many ways could I arrange things? Then multiply it all together. And take the inverse for a “1 in somuch” result. For your example, the first event is 40%, or 0.4. Second to Sixth event is the same. How many ways to arrange? Just 1, all devours. So the answer is 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 1 = 0.004096. And as @Lun said, 1 in 244 A more complicated scenario: What if it was 6 devours in 7 casts 1. 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.6 (because chances of not devour is 60%) 2. How many ways? In this case there are 7 ways. The first cast could be the miss, or the 2nd, or the 3rd… 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.4 \* 0.6 \* 7 = 0.0172, roughly 1 in 58.