# I've been tracking the Kraken since the "nerf"

**URL:** <https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/ive-been-tracking-the-kraken-since-the-nerf/33327>\
**Category:** Uncategorized\
**Created:** [November 21, 2017, 12:01pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/ive-been-tracking-the-kraken-since-the-nerf/33327 "2017-11-21T12:01:49Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 7

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**Author:** ![akots](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/13edae/32.png) [@akots](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/akots)\
**Post date:** [November 27, 2017, 7:19pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/ive-been-tracking-the-kraken-since-the-nerf/33327/7 "2017-11-27T19:19:01Z")

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> [@Flint](#):
>
> At what point is it not? The binomial probability of this occurring given an actual 0.35 probability is exactly 3.18x10^-14. The probability of seeing 59 or more successes out of 76 trials is 3.74x10^-14.
> 
> This is absurdly improbable.

Do you have the actual data? I can try to run some simple test to determine if it is random and independent or not random and independent similar to what I’ve done with TDS resurrection, which was not random. [Short testing of resurrection rates - #7 by akots](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/short-testing-of-resurrection-rates/32835/7)

Since it is not random, your probability calculation is not correct because, strictly speaking, the events are not random and independent.

There has been some additional discussion in this thread as well: [The Dragon Soul resurrect trait triggers more often than it should](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/the-dragon-soul-resurrect-trait-triggers-more-often-than-it-should/32258)

The format should be a simple sequence of 0 (cast but not devoured) or 1 (cast and devoured) in the exact sequence as it happened. There should be no omissions. If something is omitted, it should be noted as unknown. I need a sequence at least 75 and better 100 excluding omissions. Running test with omissions is quite tricky but still should be possible.

It will be interesting also to run tests with player sample and AI sample to see if there is something different about these. And it will also make the test more reliable with higher statistical power due to comparison.

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