# How many Dragonite eggs to open to get 6 basic troops? **URL:** \ **Category:** Feature Requests and Game feedback\ **Created:** [July 22, 2023, 7:22am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/how-many-dragonite-eggs-to-open-to-get-6-basic-troops/80576 "2023-07-22T07:22:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 9
**Author:** ![Stratelier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/977dab/32.png) [@Stratelier](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Stratelier)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2023, 11:33pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/how-many-dragonite-eggs-to-open-to-get-6-basic-troops/80576/9 "2023-07-22T23:33:40Z")
> [@JustSayin](#): > > This is statistically impossible and very annoying. Annoying? Yes. “Statistically impossible”? _(laughs in combinatorial probability spreadsheet)_ Here’s how the overall probability of having Y unique dragons after X eggs _actually_ maps out: ![gemsof-dragons-vs-eggs](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/uploads/gemsofwar/original/3X/0/7/072e0aa5235c4cdb9f5b2ef8a4fd109d654b05c3.png) (Ask me how this is calculated. I dare you.) 15 eggs is the “expected value”, but as you can see there is a significant chance of NOT having a full set by then, and even a 3% chance of not even having 5 dragons yet! Even by 30 eggs, there’s still a ~2.5% chance of NOT having the full set. So it really is more likely than you think. > **Alternative plots of the same data** > > Here’s a non-stacked version: > > ![gemsof-dragons-vs-eggs-scatter](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/uploads/gemsofwar/original/3X/b/c/bc86e3ff8c015c2318be1d2d2c807391c5183493.png) > > And here’s a Y-logarithmic plot: > > ![gemsof-dragons-vs-eggs-log](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/uploads/gemsofwar/original/3X/d/a/daaf7662789234de0a0c2856decb5e7a3ba55251.png) > > Note how in a logarithmic plot, each series converges to a “straight line” aka. an exponential decay of \* (# dragons / 6) per egg crafted, which is of course the basic probability of getting a duplicate. > [@JustSayin](#): > > I have already opened 26 Dragonite Eggs and have only got 5 out of the 6 basic Dragonite troops. (PS - if you are tracking your craft dates for individual eggs, or at least the sequential order, I’d love to add them to my spreadsheet data.) --- _[View the full topic](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/how-many-dragonite-eggs-to-open-to-get-6-basic-troops/80576)._