# Data Gathering: The Flesh Horror Battlecrasher **URL:** \ **Category:** Gameplay Chat (PC/Mobile)\ **Created:** [October 27, 2021, 9:20am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362 "2021-10-27T09:20:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Mithran](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/mithran/32/18064_2.png) [@Mithran](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Mithran)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2021, 9:20am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/1 "2021-10-27T09:20:22Z")
_sighs_ Guess I might as well. Post your encounters below of any of the following relevant data points: 1. How long in playtime/how many battles after daily reset for first and second encounter with The Flesh Horror that you were able to win the battle and get The Devil Drop and/or how many Keeper of Souls did you encounter before getting your first and second 2. How long in playtime/how many battles after daily reset for your _third_ encounter with The Flesh Horror that you were able to win the battle and get The Devil Drop and/or how many Keeper of Souls did you encounter before getting your first and second This will unfortunately probably be too late since most people hardcore enough to grind out their initial copies for the weapon craft + mythic ascenscion are likely at 5 copies already. But at least a few people are probably hardcore chain exploring for 3 battles every couple minutes to _maybe_ get a decent sample size. If we can get even an _anecdotal_ evidence of a third drop per day, that would be helpful in maybe spurring people on to see if it is worth trying to model this out. ---
**Author:** ![actreal](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/actreal/32/1945_2.png) [@actreal](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/actreal)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2021, 10:12am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/2 "2021-10-27T10:12:32Z")
I didn’t see this post until I’d got my two Devils for Wednesday, but I don’t believe I saw any KoS before the two Devils and I’ve seen a couple since. In terms of worth modelling, until at least a single player confirms dropping 3 Devils in the same day anywhere on the forum, I think there is zero point or possibility modelling it. ---
**Author:** ![ALP](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e99b99/32.png) [@ALP](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/ALP)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2021, 10:26am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/3 "2021-10-27T10:26:52Z")
Todays explore1 fights. | | Fights | Gnome | Devil | Soul | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 5 | | 1 | | | | 5 | | | 2 | | | 5 | | | | | | 5 | | | | | | 5 | | | 2 | | | 4 | | | | | | 5 | | | | | | 5 | | | 1 | | | 6 | | | 2 | | | 5 | | | 2 | | | 5 | 1 | 1 | | | | | | | | | TOTAL | 55 | 1 | 2 | 9 | ---
**Author:** ![Mithran](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/mithran/32/18064_2.png) [@Mithran](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Mithran)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2021, 11:48am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/4 "2021-10-27T11:48:22Z")
Had 2 copies from Monday, 0 from Tuesday Starting Wednesday Explore 1, Wild Plains Battle 9 - KOS Battle 10 - KOS Battle 12 - Flesh Horror /The Devil Battle 14 - Flesh Horror/ The Devil Battle 16 - KOS Battle 27 - KOS Battle 30 - KOS Battle 33 - KOS Battle 34 - KOS Battle 37 - KOS Battle 42 - KOS Battle 43 - KOS Battle 45 - KOS Battle 46 - KOS Battle 51 - KOS Battle 54 - KOS Battle 60 - KOS Battle 63 - KOS Battle 65 - KOS Battle 68 - KOS Battle 81 - KOS Battle 82 - KOS Battle 86 - KOS Battle 92 - Verse 1 Gnome Battle 96 - KOS Battle 98 - Treasure Gnome (normal, 2500 gold) Battle 101 - KOS Battle 103 - KOS Battle 107 - KOS Battle 109 - KOS Battle 112 - KOS Battle 114 - KOS Battle 116 - KOS Battle 123 - KOS Battle 125 - KOS Battle 126 - KOS Battle 127 - KOS (oh baby a triple) Battle 128 - KOS (!?) Battle 129 - KOS (…) Battle 133 - KOS Battle 138 - KOS Battle 141 - KOS Battle 153 - KOS Battle 161 - KOS Battle 162 - KOS Battle 166 - KOS Battle 175 - KOS Battle 182 - KOS Battle 192 - KOS Battle 194 - KOS Battle 195 - KOS Battle 199 - KOS Battle 200 - Treasure Gnome (regular, 5 diamonds) Battle 201 - Soul Gnome Battle 202 - Glory Gnome 200 glory Battle 203 - KOS Battle 210 - KOS Battle 220 - KOS Battle 222 - KOS Battle 234 - Treasure Gnome (regular, 100 souls) Battle 242 - KOS Battle 243 - KOS Battle 248 - KOS Battle 249 - KOS Battle 252 - Treasure Gnome (regular, 500 souls) Totals: 7 gnomes 2 The Flesh Horror Battlecrashers, 2 The Devil Drops 56 KOS Battlecrashers, 54 of them after both Flesh Horrors were encountered Edit: Video: [![](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/uploads/gemsofwar/original/3X/f/3/f3c5f58a0cb3cc3da27035c63029594f20bf3cff.jpeg "252 Explore Runs (Data gather - Flesh Horror Battlecrasher)") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=518Z7jyuI1k) Some impressive streaking there, but nothing I haven’t seen before. Will include video link tomorrow. I’m every bit as interested in modeling the drop rates for drops 1 and 2 as the third one as drops 1 and 2 with a claim of “reduces every time you encounter it” informs what a “reasonable expectation” for drop 3 would be. A high confidence rate model for drops 1 and 2 shows that the “cliff” at drop 3 is might be more severe than intended, even if drop 3 is just a documented several dozen “misses” in a row. For example, something that could _sort of_ reasonably fit _just my sample_ would be a 40% (of all battlecrashers) \> 10% \> 2.5% reduction, where no individual sample segment would be _that_ extreme of an outlier (getting 0/54 on a 2.5% would actually be much closer to expectation than getting 1/1 on a 1/10). However, I highly doubt this will hold over multiple samples based on what people had already reported from Monday/Tuesday. A linear reduction model that subtracts the same number would _always_ hit zero based on where we are at drop 3, which at this point already cannot reasonably be higher than ~5.5% or so based on just my data above to see 0/54, and that is using a _very_ conservative estimate of “reasonable”. Meaning if it were 15.5% \> 10.5% \> 5.5% \> 0.5%… then there is still a hard cap in place, which has now been claimed three times is not the case. It could be that they didn’t use this type of multiplicative encounter rate reduction and instead used a table or some other type of math that has a more extreme cliff, like 30%/15%/0.5%… but this would just point to that cliff being _intentionally behind hidden_ behind two “generous” drops to establish a pattern purely to have people futilely hunt for the third, which for now I’m at least giving the benefit of the doubt this isn’t the case, but it also does not fit the “encounter rate will decrease (drastically, according to Kafka) after **every** time it is defeated” claim (taken to meant here, every time it is defeated and the reward is collected, since losing the battle doesn’t give a reward and doesn’t seem to count against your rates). Basically, if said claim holds true (read: not stated in a way to _hide_ the fact that there is an intentional cliff _after_ expectations have been established by a 2 drop pattern) that have now been repeated on three separate occasions, there should be a model that could show a reduction between 1 and 2 where a similar reduction could be applied between 2 and 3. But the disparity between 1 and 2 being very small and 2 and 3 being _gigantic_, given how the event was described, presents kind of a problem. Since the idea that drop rate reduction could possibly go to 0 and result in a per day cap despite there _technically_ not being a cap in the code (whether accidental or intentional) was directly denied, either it is broken in some other way and there is a _chance_ it can be fixed before the weekend players come in, the cliff is not as severe as we are noticing from preliminary data which we can only determine with more data, or the “hidden cliff” exists intentionally and informs a very bad policy when it comes to giving misleading information about chance based mechanics. ---
**Author:** ![Fleg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/5e9695/32.png) [@Fleg](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Fleg)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2021, 12:21pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/5 "2021-10-27T12:21:10Z")
Pretty sure the math is 50/50 KOS or Flesh Horror until you get your first Devil. Then it’s maybe 75/25 until you get your second. Then it’s 100/0. Until someone shows a screenshot with more than 5 Devils I’m going to just assume the above is true. Whether devs intended 0% chance after 2 Devils is the real question. ---
**Author:** ![Mithran](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/mithran/32/18064_2.png) [@Mithran](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Mithran)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2021, 12:36pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/6 "2021-10-27T12:36:01Z")
> [@Fleg](#): > > Until someone shows a screenshot with more than 5 Devils I’m going to just assume the above is true. Whether devs intended 0% chance after 2 Devils is the real question. That won’t be enough. At least one person reported getting one in legendary tasks (probably also not intended 🤷‍♂️) and I know of one other that logged in between the fix was implemented and when it was announced, before reset, and got their two Tuesday copies in addition to their two Wednesday copies and mailed copy. Both were very clear about where these extra copies came from. There is as of yet no evidence supporting a third daily drop. I’m basically kinda hoping someone already tracking explore for a different reason can jot down how many times they see KOS, or is abextrous enough to do this simultaneously without losing speed, or someone has a stream archive of like multiple hours of explore grinding or something (but then I’d have to parse the data myself), since most are already convinced there is a “cap” and because of that probably won’t get enough data to at least show with some degree of certainty there is a precipitous _cliff_ at the third drop that is either indicative of a repeated and intentional misrepresentation of chance based mechanics or is not intended. The _first_ two drops are still pretty important to lock down into a range of probabilities though, since that informs what the third one _should_ be if there is any sort of pattern (with the absence of such a pattern entirely meaning the other bad thing). ---
**Author:** ![Voq](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/voq/32/54089_2.png) [@Voq](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Voq)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2021, 1:15pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/7 "2021-10-27T13:15:40Z")
Ahh, I didn’t track KOS. I farmed some Explore 1 this morning to see if I could get the last two Devils before work. I got my 1st Flesh Horror encounter after 8 fights. The 2nd encounter occurred 7 fights later. I had a few KOS crash my battles before and between the Flesh Horrors. I’ll be doing more battles in the evening. ---
**Author:** ![Magnusimus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/magnusimus/32/50652_2.png) [@Magnusimus](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Magnusimus)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2021, 2:53pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/8 "2021-10-27T14:53:04Z")
I didn’f track Pre-“fix”, but here’s the Post-“fix”: Less than (but about) an hour of Ironhawking in Explore 1 yielded… 1 2 3 4 5 6 - KoS 7 8 9 10 11 - KoS 12 13 14 15 - TFH 16 - TFH 17 18 - KoS 19 - KoS 20 - KoS 21 22 - KoS 23 24 25 26 27 28 - KoS 29 - KoS 30 31 - KoS 32 33 34 35 36 37 - KoS 38 39 40 41 - KoS 42 - KoS 43 - KoS 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 - KoS 53 54 55 56 - KoS 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 - KoS 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 - KoS 73 - KoS 74 75 - KoS 76 77 - KoS 78 79 80 81 82 83 - KoS 84 85 - Jewel Gnome 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 - KoS 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 Will report back if I continue the goose chase, or at the very least after reset to do another hundred 👍 ---
**Author:** ![sylverscale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f17d59/32.png) [@sylverscale](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/sylverscale)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2021, 5:15pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/9 "2021-10-27T17:15:15Z")
I fought 45 battles in total. Took about 20 minutes (mainly because of taking notes 😉). All battles were won. I got KoS 13 times, in the battles 1, 3, 11, 13, 16, 17, 20, 31, 35, 36, 37, 43, 44 I got TFH 2 times, in the battles 32, 45 Done farming for now but should I find a 3rd horror today, I’ll report it ---
**Author:** ![Desoyo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/8edcca/32.png) [@Desoyo](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Desoyo)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2021, 7:39pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/10 "2021-10-27T19:39:18Z")
I got 2 on monday, 0 Tuesday, today Wed, i got 2 devils show up, both dropped devil, and then after a while got 3rd devil to show up in battle, but didnt get devil as a drop… will see if i get more tonight and i’ll update this then. ---
**Author:** ![Voq](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/voq/32/54089_2.png) [@Voq](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Voq)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2021, 12:40am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/11 "2021-10-28T00:40:55Z")
After encountering my 2nd Flesh Horror and getting my 2nd Devil for the day, I tracked my next 200 fights. It was mostly Explore 1 with a few Explore 12 runs in-between. I encountered 40 KOS, and no Flesh Horrors. I saw them in battles 4, 6, 10 ,13 , 24, 25, 30, 34, 39, 50, 52, 61, 67, 73, 74, 90, 92, 95, 108, 113, 125, 128, 135, 136, 144, 145, 147, 150, 152, 157, 158, 160, 178, 181, 183, 187, 188, 189, 190, 192. ---
**Author:** ![ALP](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e99b99/32.png) [@ALP](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/ALP)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2021, 7:45am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/12 "2021-10-28T07:45:13Z")
Got “The Devil” on 15th and 33th fights. | | | Gnome | TFH | KoS | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1 | | | 1 | | | 1 | Soul | | | | | 3 | Pet | | | | | 9 | | | 1 | | | 1 | | 1 | | | | 3 | | | 1 | | | 8 | | | 1 | | | 1 | | | 1 | | | 6 | | 1 | | | TOTAL | 33 | 2 | 2 | 5 | ---
**Author:** ![Mithran](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/mithran/32/18064_2.png) [@Mithran](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Mithran)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2021, 8:43am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/13 "2021-10-28T08:43:33Z")
Here is the first anecdotal report of a third daily copy appearing: > [@Soul Harvest](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/soul-harvest/72291/156): > > @sylverscale 10:00am - reset 10:05 - recieved a copy from mail 10:12 - a copy from cpvp ~10:40 - one more from cpvp (upgraded the weapon) 11:01pm - one more copy, the sixth Note: Didn’t restart after reset. Now if we could just get a few in our samples, we can have an idea of how severe that third drop cliff is. I guess it does present a different question “what triggers the chance reset?” Ie., would it just be tracked entirely server side, is it related to when the daily reset splash screen is encountered (most things are), or is a full game restart necessary? For example, if you logged on Wednesday and didn’t play all day but were in the PvP menu, and you continued playing PvP without exiting thus not triggering the splash screen and not restarting, and then you encountered two Flesh Horrors and got two Devil drops would your copies be contributed to Wednesday or Thursday? Unfortunately, I was on the map screen during the reset period so I’m only able to test if I can encounter The Flesh Horror after having not _restarted the game_. If I hit 100 battles without hitting a Flesh Horror I’m going to restart. Edit: As I’m 8 battles in having already seen 2 flesh horrors I’m going to say the chance reset is likely linked to seeing the splash screen. Will try to remember to confirm tomorrow by “parking” my account in an area that does not force a daily reset splash screen to appear where you can continuously battle. ---
**Author:** ![Mithran](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/mithran/32/18064_2.png) [@Mithran](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Mithran)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2021, 9:47am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/14 "2021-10-28T09:47:46Z")
Thrusday, Oct 28 Encountered 2 Flesh Horror yesterday with drops Encountered daily reset splash screen but did NOT restart client number of battles - encounter 5 - KOS 7 - Flesh Horror/The Devil Drop 8 - Flesh Horror/The Devil Drop 10 - KOS 12 - KOS 15 - KOS 16 - KOS 19 - KOS 21 - KOS 28 - KOS 31 - KOS 35 - KOS 42 - KOS 47 - KOS 49 - KOS 50 - KOS 55 - KOS 58 - KOS 60 - KOS 68 - KOS 72 - KOS 76 - KOS 82 - Soul Gnome (5000 souls) 86 - KOS 88 - KOS 100 - KOS stopped at 101 for now Totals - 2 Flesh Horror/The Devil drops, back to back, within 8 battles 23 KOS, 22 after the second Flesh Horror/Devil drop 1 Gnome Edit: [Data Gather - The Flesh Horror Battlecrasher day2 - YouTube](https://youtu.be/QC36VA6YPgM) Apologies for the echo, fixed in next video. Based on the data now recorded in this thread alone, it is _extremely_ unlikely that the second TFH encounter to encompass less than ~15% of all battlecrashers when it is encountered (taking a _very_ charitable estimate here by averaging the chances of all BC from 1 and 2 TFH encounters, since many of the “second” TFH encounteres happened _sooner_ after the second TFH, otherwise 20%+) and it is extremely unlikely for the chance at the third one to be anything greater than ~2.5%. A 75% \> 15% \> 3% (chance of any battlecrashers encountered being specifically TFH) pattern would imply nearly all gathered data here is an artifact, because most of the individual sample sets would be outliers would be outliers on just the first two encounters (and _all_ of them that tracked beyond the second would be with respect to the third). ---
**Author:** ![Fleg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/5e9695/32.png) [@Fleg](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Fleg)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2021, 11:19am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/15 "2021-10-28T11:19:17Z")
Got my 2nd Devil after 12 battles today. KOS KOS KOS \_ FH \_ KOS \_ \_ \_ \_ FH ---
**Author:** ![sylverscale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f17d59/32.png) [@sylverscale](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/sylverscale)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2021, 5:24pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/16 "2021-10-28T17:24:22Z")
I played fast explore for class XP yesterday, about 3h. No 3rd flesh horror. Didn’t write down the others but I had quite a few KoS. ---
**Author:** ![beeflog](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/beeflog/32/61703_2.png) [@beeflog](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/beeflog)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2021, 6:04pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/17 "2021-10-28T18:04:18Z")
From anecdotal evidence in this thread, it seems like the 2nd TFH comes faster than the first. I wonder if they implemented the “reduced chance” backwards… anyway, here are my numbers from a few minutes in PvP 5th fight KoS 10th fight TFH 11 KoS 12 KoS 15 KoS 17 TFH ---
**Author:** ![Grundulum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/82dd89/32.png) [@Grundulum](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Grundulum)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2021, 1:47am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/18 "2021-10-29T01:47:40Z")
My second Flesh Horror _certainly_ wasn’t faster than my first. I have data from 100 battles after FH #2. In case it becomes relevant, the first 18 battles were in Explore 12 and the remainder were in Explore 1. I did not see a third Flesh Horror, for what it’s worth. Battle 3: FH Battle 7: KoS Battle 8: Treasure Gnome 10: KoS 13: KoS 18: FH 20: Daemon Gnome 24: KoS 25: KoS 27: KoS 30: KoS 34: Treasure Gnome 35: KoS 38: KoS 40: KoS 41: KoS 42: KoS (I thought my game was broken here, after 17 consecutive battles with no battlecrashers) 60: KoS 63: Glory Gnome 66: KoS 67: KoS 68: KoS 70: Soul Gnome 71: KoS 74: KoS 76: KoS 79: KoS 83: KoS 86: KoS 87: KoS 89: KoS 90: KoS 91: Treasure Gnome 97: KoS 101: KoS 105: KoS 106: KoS 114: KoS 116: KoS 118: KoS ---
**Author:** ![Magnusimus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/magnusimus/32/50652_2.png) [@Magnusimus](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Magnusimus)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2021, 2:49am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/19 "2021-10-29T02:49:24Z")
1 - KoS 2 3 4 - TFH 5 6 - KoS 7 - KoS 8 9 - KoS 10 11 - KoS 12 13 - TFH EDIT — my game just quickly downloaded a small update. Think they ninja-fixed the “non-existent” hard-cap? 😂 ---
**Author:** ![Grundulum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/82dd89/32.png) [@Grundulum](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Grundulum)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2021, 6:25am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362/20 "2021-10-29T06:25:08Z")
According to TaransWorld, the update earlier was 6 changes to 5 troops. I don’t know if TaransWorld can check for the kind of changes associated with the appearance rate of troops, though. [Next page](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/data-gathering-the-flesh-horror-battlecrasher/72362.md?page=2)