# 1000 tributes collected. Here are the results. Worrying **URL:** \ **Category:** Gameplay Chat (PlayStation 4/Xbox One)\ **Created:** [January 27, 2018, 3:47pm UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/1000-tributes-collected-here-are-the-results-worrying/35332 "2018-01-27T15:47:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 24
**Author:** ![Mithran](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex019/user_avatar/community.gemsofwar.com/mithran/32/18064_2.png) [@Mithran](https://community.gemsofwar.com/u/Mithran)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2018, 1:37am UTC](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/1000-tributes-collected-here-are-the-results-worrying/35332/24 "2018-01-28T01:37:07Z")
See also: > [@Kingdom Tribute - Is Guild Tribute Chance Bonus being accounted for? Bug?](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/kingdom-tribute-is-guild-tribute-chance-bonus-being-accounted-for-bug/14580): > > TL;DR - Data I collected shows guild tribute bonus NOT being added to city tribute chances. Results I’ll start with result - I’ve documented below how I did the calculations as well as shared the spreadsheet with the data & calculations. To clarify - the below chart show odds of X number of cities sending tribute - NOT how much tribute you get. For the chart below & for duration of my data collection - All 25 cities at lvl 10, all cities below 3 stars [every city has 10% tribute chance] G… > [@Can you please verify that Kingdom Tribute chance (w/Guild bonus) is working as intended?](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/can-you-please-verify-that-kingdom-tribute-chance-w-guild-bonus-is-working-as-intended/20047): > > 26 Kingdoms\* at 3-stars or better (double tribute chance = 20%). Guild bonus +6% = 26% total chance of Tribute The expected distribution at 26% has a roughly 50/50 breakpoint at 7: 6 or fewer Kingdoms provide tribute: 46% 7 or greater: 53% 8 or greater: 35% [1 in 3] 9+: 21% [1 in 5] 10+: 11% [1 in 9] We should observe 10+ around once per day on average, sometimes 0, sometimes twice. 11+ 5% [1 in 20] But the Tributes I’m seeing (smallish sample size) don’t match that. Possibly the Guild… (in which the total sample between all of them was _much_ smaller, showed a trend, was investigated, was determined to not be working correctly, and subsequently “fixed” but the fix was not specified) There is also a precedent of them accidentally leaving an entire kingdom off the tribute table for several months (it was impossible to tribute from that kingdom, skewing the values). We _could_ see a trend away from expectation with _any_ given data set, no matter how big, it just becomes increasingly unlikely and eventually enough to be called “statistically impossible”. So the while the sample isn’t _conclusive_, there is no way we’d be able to get that kind of data from our end either way. At the same time, this isn’t the 415th post of someone complaining about AI resurrects, devours, explodes, cascades, or anything else supplying anecdotal evidence and not actually recording anything. We have 1000 samples here. Not 1000 coin flips. 30,000 independent trials grouped into 1000 sets of 30 consecutive trials each, grouped into smaller sets of 100 that show a trend. I think this deserves a bit more scrutiny than “yeah, but it could still happen because random is random so everything is working fine as is, but if you showed me a _million_ samples, then we’ll talk”. This isn’t the same as the 415 other threads complaining about RNG or AI bias because they have a “feeling” or they saw that one time that one extremely improbable event happening or a bunch of “bad” events happening more than they think they should but without recording any hard data, or with them starting with skewed data by recording the edge case first and ending on another arbitrary number where they got a result confirming their assertion. If it was, I’d be right there siding with the skeptics. I think this warrants investigation, or at very least a response. That way, when the _next_ person comes up claiming they “feel” their tributes are slightly lower than the expected 26%, I can just say “yeah, but its actually 24.8% because they are rolled independently but you can’t double tribute the same kingdom. Here is the dev response. Assuming that, these numbers are now much closer to the expected values”, and save them from either thinking the game is somehow “cheating” them or gathering 1000 tribute samples (_months_ of data gathering, mind you) and have it just brushed aside by “yeah, RNG is RNG, what can you do?”. --- _[View the full topic](https://community.gemsofwar.com/t/1000-tributes-collected-here-are-the-results-worrying/35332)._