Inb4 the devs tell us the exact drop rates if the traitstones do to everyone working so hard at trying discovering the drop chance of traitstones.
Actually what I said was that player level or opponent didn’t affect the chance of traitstone drops. The chance of getting a traitstone was a flat amount and that playing on higher difficulties increases the chance of getting a traitstone by a slight amount.
Difficulty does not affect the rarity of the traitstone received.
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Anyone know where I can try to farm, if possible, 2x Arcane Forest traitstones? 
brown/green so in Zaejin challenges 
ok, thanks. I think at least 100 tries will do, right? :)) These are pretty rare…
I can not say , maybe someone?
I think 1% chance is the ballpark at which you can expect arcanes… at least some people are reporting similart droprates, but noone have gathered a large enough data to be statistically sure.
Didn’t keep track of my drop rates, but I’ve been farming a LOT for 3 days, looking for 2 Arcane Forest traitstones (Zaejin), only got one… And 3 celestial. Don’t know if I should cry or be happy about that ._.
I farmed in Zaejin only (PS : finally got my arcane traistone in the meantime 
)
So, almost 300 Matches played and I have a guess on that drop-rates:
Minor: 60%
Major: 30%
Runic: 8,5%
Arcane: 1%
Celestial: 0,5%
The runic ratio feels like its gone down a lot lately, and minor gone up…
I have no stats to back it up, but I seem to be seeing Runic Traitstones dropping more frequently since the latest event changeover…?
Again we haven’t changed anything.
The luck is strong and it leaves the devs scratching their heads. Someone on dev team could possible troll but i doubt cause that seems too much like a conspiracy.
To get a statistically accurate picture, one would have to record at least a few hundreds, if not thousands, of drops. Anyone who does a few dozens of matches would just fall into the statistical margin of error, nothing substantial can be learned from such sample sizes.
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So… I guess the drop rates are set in stone by now?
Can we have those drop rates per difficulty everyone is looking for?
As with all those statistical chances, we will have them figured out in a few weeks (or months at latest) from now. Unless there are plans to change them, there is no reason to keep them secret @Nimhain
@yonizaf - not necessarily so. It depends on the confidence interval you want. If one wants to be theoretical, you could argue infinite samples would not give an exactly accurate result, just tend towards the set figures.
For Minor & Major traitstones, a sample size of just 20 to 40 would be enough for a reasonable confidence interval. With a hundred you can be fairly confident on Nil, Minor & Major…then it’s just figuring out how the remaining 10-15% is made up between Runic, Arcane & Celestial.
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That is so not true. With a sample size of 20-40 you can learn absolutely nothing, as the results can vary wildly.
For example with a sample of 20 you could get 50% major, 50% nothing. Can you learn anything from that? Or, someone else could get 80% minor and then 3 celestials and a runic. with these numbers, the results are so unstable that they are worthless - unless someone takes the time to collect all such samples to a one big sample.
I would say, a minimal sample size, even for just majors and minors, would have to be at least 100, to get even remotely close to the correct numbers. And even then, if your results vary too much, it is more likely you just got a statistical error than that the numbers actually changed.
And then there are these people who claimed they saw change in runic drop rates (which is why I said what I said to begin with). What was their sample size? And they claimed to notice a change to runic drop rates, which you shouldn’t be able to tell without a sample of at least a few hundreds, possibly thousands. That’s all I was trying to say.